Avalon Holdings Corp Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryEnvironmental & Facilities Services Beta (adjusted)0.75 Intrinsic Value $2.75median of 6 methods · middle span $2-$7based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $2.52Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 9% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $9.8M Enterprise Value $33.4M Shares Outstanding 3.9M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date6 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Avalon Holdings Corporation operates a highly unfocused business model, splitting its operations between waste management services (55% of revenues) and golf/hospitality operations (45% of revenues). While its waste management segment, particularly its landfills, represents a stable and potentially high-margin business benefiting from regional scarcity, overall profitability is severely dragged down by the capital-intensive and low-return golf and country club division. The company remains majority voting-controlled by its CEO, Ronald Klingle, through high-vote Class B shares, limiting minority shareholders' ability to push for strategic divestitures or restructuring. Given persistent net losses, high debt levels, and a lack of clear catalysts to unlock value, a Hold recommendation is warranted. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Prolonged regulatory suspensions of saltwater injection wells severely impact the waste management segment's profitability. Simultaneously, rising labor and food/beverage inflation further depress margins in the golf and country club segment, leading to widening net losses, covenant breaches on its line of credit, and a decline in book value. Base CaseCentral scenario The company continues to operate both segments without major strategic changes. Waste management revenues remain stable with modest pricing power, but overall profitability is weighed down by seasonal slowdowns and cost inflation in the hospitality segment. Net income remains near breakeven, and the stock trades in a tight range reflecting its micro-cap status and low liquidity. Bull CaseUpside scenario Avalon Holdings trades at a profound discount to its tangible book value (P/TBV of ~0.26x to 0.29x) and enterprise value (trading below 3x FY-26E EBITDA), offering a significant margin of safety. The company's dual-engine model combines steady, recurring country club membership dues with high-margin hazardous waste brokerage services, which are poised for margin expansion ahead of regulatory mandates like the EPA e-Manifest. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |