Avalo Therapeutics Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)0.87 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $15.33Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $822.1M Enterprise Value $736.8M Shares Outstanding 53.6M diluted Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Avalo Therapeutics is a highly promising clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on developing IL-1̲-based treatments for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases. The investment thesis is strongly supported by the positive topline results from the Phase 2 LOTUS trial of its lead asset, abdakibart (AVTX-009), in moderate to severe hidradenitis suppurativa (HS). The trial successfully met its primary endpoint (HiSCR75) with high statistical significance, demonstrating best-in-class efficacy potential. Backed by a robust cash runway extending into 2028 and a newly expanded pipeline featuring AVTX-010, Avalo is well-positioned to transition into a registrational Phase 3 program, offering substantial valuation upside. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$30.00 Mean target$44.15 High · most bullish analyst$60.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $24.2420% Phase 3 clinical trials for abdakibart face enrollment delays or fail to replicate the strong efficacy observed in Phase 2. High R&D burn rates accelerate cash depletion, forcing dilutive equity raises before 2028, or regulatory hurdles delay approval. Base CaseCentral scenario $44.1550% Matches the consensus meanAvalo successfully initiates and advances its registrational Phase 3 program for abdakibart in HS with clear FDA alignment. The company maintains its disciplined financial execution, keeping its cash runway intact into 2028, while clinical development of AVTX-010 progresses steadily. Bull CaseUpside scenario $60.0030% Abdakibart (AVTX-009) achieves best-in-class status in the multi-billion dollar HS market, demonstrating superior efficacy and a patient-friendly monthly dosing regimen in Phase 3 trials. Rapid clinical progression of AVTX-010 expands the pipeline's long-term value, and the company secures a lucrative global commercialization partnership. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |