Autozone Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryAutomotive Retail Beta (adjusted)0.56 Intrinsic Value $3,054.87median of 5 methods · middle span $2,657-$5,203based on filings through 9 May 2026 Market Price $2,830.02Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 8% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $45.8B Enterprise Value $54.5B Shares Outstanding 16.9M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date8 Dec 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary AutoZone enters its fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter report with resilient domestic demand and strong commercial momentum: third-quarter domestic same-store sales rose 4.1%, commercial sales increased 10.4%, and total sales grew 8.4%. The offset is weaker earnings conversion. Gross margin fell 57 basis points to 52.2%, primarily because of a 77-basis-point LIFO impact, while constant-currency international comparable sales rose only 1.6% and remained below management's plan. Store expansion and continued repurchases support per-share value, but the balance of solid growth, tariff-related margin pressure, and execution risk warrants a Hold pending the September 22 results. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$3,200.00 Mean target$3,950.52 High · most bullish analyst$4,800.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $3,200.0025% Domestic demand weakens, commercial growth decelerates, and tariff-driven inventory costs push gross margin below the monitoring threshold. International performance remains below plan while elevated investment fails to produce sufficient sales leverage, leading to a material de-rating. Base CaseCentral scenario $3,950.5255% Matches the consensus meanLow-to-mid-single-digit domestic comparable growth, commercial market-share gains, and store expansion broadly offset continuing LIFO pressure and subdued international constant-currency growth. The resulting operating performance supports moderate appreciation from the August 28 market price. Bull CaseUpside scenario $4,800.0020% Domestic comparable sales remain near or above the third-quarter pace, commercial growth stays near double digits, tariff-related LIFO pressure moderates, and AutoZone reaches its fiscal-year store-opening objective. Stronger earnings conversion and continued repurchases then support a recovery toward the upper part of the recent trading range. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |