Autonation Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryAuto & Truck Dealerships Beta (adjusted)0.82 Intrinsic Value $160.36median of 6 methods · middle span $125-$404based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $157.44Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 2% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.2B Enterprise Value $8.9B Shares Outstanding 33.6M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary AutoNation continues to demonstrate operational resilience and strong cash generation despite a flat top-line environment and industry-wide vehicle volume headwinds. The company's investment thesis is anchored by its high-margin, recurring After-Sales business, record unit profitability in Customer Financial Services (CFS), and a highly aggressive share buyback program that drives consistent EPS compounding. Furthermore, the expansion of its captive finance arm, AutoNation Finance, provides a differentiated earnings stream that helps insulate the company from cyclical volume fluctuations. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$210.00 Mean target$246.69 High · most bullish analyst$300.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $208.0015% Persistent high interest rates and deteriorating consumer discretionary spending lead to a sharper-than-expected contraction in vehicle gross profit per unit (GPU). Elevated floorplan expenses and rising credit losses within the AutoNation Finance portfolio constrain free cash flow generation, limiting the company's capacity for share repurchases. Base CaseCentral scenario $246.6960% Matches the consensus meanAfter-Sales gross profit continues to grow at a mid-single-digit rate, offsetting flat to slightly down new and used vehicle volumes. AutoNation Finance continues its steady origination pace, and the company utilizes its robust free cash flow to repurchase approximately 9% of its float over the next three years, driving steady double-digit adjusted EPS growth. Bull CaseUpside scenario $300.0025% Accelerated expansion of AutoNation Finance and higher-than-expected synergy capture from regional acquisitions like Toyota of Newnan drive significant margin expansion. Stronger recovery in new vehicle volumes combined with sustained high-margin After-Sales growth allows the company to execute buybacks at the upper end of expectations, repurchasing over 10% of outstanding shares annually. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |