Automatic Data Processing, Inc. Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryHuman Resource & Employment Services Beta (adjusted)0.87 Intrinsic Value $291.27median of 6 methods · middle span $223-$362based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $258.06Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 13% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $102.3B Enterprise Value $103B Shares Outstanding 403.3M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend11 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary ADP combines extensive client scale, high Employer Services retention, continued bookings growth and increasing use of AI-enabled products with a fiscal 2027 outlook for sustained revenue and adjusted EPS growth. The issuer-hosted quote of $287.48 was already close to the upper portion of its trailing 52-week range. A Hold is therefore appropriate pending evidence that bookings, retention and pays-per-control trends can support continued execution. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$225.00 Mean target$286.93 High · most bullish analyst$322.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $188.1625% A weaker labor market, negative pays-per-control growth, retention below the outlook-implied range, slower bookings, or a material technology or cybersecurity disruption could drive a substantial valuation reset. The issuer-hosted trailing 52-week low is used as the downside reference point. Base CaseCentral scenario $286.9358% Matches the consensus meanADP delivers broadly within its fiscal 2027 outlook, with Employer Services retention declining only within guidance and bookings remaining positive. Bull CaseUpside scenario $305.3117% Execution near the upper ends of fiscal 2027 guidance, resilient retention, stronger bookings and continued adoption of ADP Assist and ADP Lyric could support a return to the issuer-hosted 52-week high reference point. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |