Autoliv Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryAuto Parts Beta (adjusted)1.25 Intrinsic Value $132.34median of 6 methods · middle span $106-$269based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $111.89Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 18% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $8.2B Enterprise Value $9.9B Shares Outstanding 73.9M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date23 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend28 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Autoliv combines global automotive-safety leadership with improving underlying profitability, strong cash generation and meaningful shareholder returns. Q2 2026 organic sales increased 1.0% while global light-vehicle production declined 0.3%, adjusted operating margin rose to 9.6%, and operating cash flow reached a second-quarter record of $434 million. The offset is a subdued near-term industry outlook: management still expects approximately flat 2026 organic sales, assumes global light-vehicle production declines around 2.5%, and relies on greater customer compensation and mitigation benefits in Q4. At the August 31 NYSE price of $121.69, the internally developed $125 base case implies limited price appreciation, supporting a Hold rather than Buy recommendation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$118.00 Mean target$134.71 High · most bullish analyst$148.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $118.0020% Global light-vehicle production deteriorates beyond management's assumptions, regional and customer mix remains unfavorable, and tariffs, raw materials or delayed customer compensation prevent the expected second-half margin improvement. Restructuring costs and weaker cash generation then constrain shareholder returns. Base CaseCentral scenario $134.7155% Matches the consensus meanAutoliv delivers approximately flat 2026 organic sales, adjusted operating margin within the 10.5%-11.0% guidance range and operating cash flow near $1.2 billion. Growth and margins improve gradually thereafter, broadly consistent with the issuer-published FY2027 consensus, while shareholder returns provide support. Bull CaseUpside scenario $148.0025% Execution materially exceeds guidance as Asian momentum persists, sales to Chinese OEMs and in India remain strong, cost reductions and customer compensation accelerate, and adjusted operating margin advances toward the 12% medium-term target. Strong cash conversion sustains dividends and repurchases while preserving leverage discipline. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |