Autodesk, Inc. Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryApplication Software Beta (adjusted)1.18 Intrinsic Value $374.73median of 6 methods · middle span $239-$440based on filings through 31 Jul 2026 Market Price $209.00Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 79% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+79%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $43.7B Enterprise Value $42.1B Shares Outstanding 211M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date27 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend22 Mar 2005 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Autodesk entered the second half of FY27 with strong operating momentum: Q2 revenue rose 16% to $2.046 billion, current remaining performance obligations grew 12%, non-GAAP operating margin reached 41%, and management raised full-year revenue and billings guidance. AECO remained the largest product family and grew 17%, while Make revenue grew 26%. The counterweight is execution and valuation uncertainty following the approximately $3.6 billion MaintainX acquisition. MaintainX expands Autodesk from design and make into operations, but management acknowledged acquisition-related margin dilution, financing costs, integration risk, and approximately $45 million of FY27 transaction expenses. The recommendation is operationally constructive but valuation-incomplete. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$220.50 Mean target$312.75 High · most bullish analyst$456.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $220.5018% Revenue or billings finish below the lower ends of FY27 guidance, operating leverage weakens, or MaintainX integration and financing costs exceed the benefits anticipated by management. Slower renewals, weaker remaining-performance-obligation trends, macroeconomic pressure, competitive disruption, security incidents, or poor customer acceptance of platform and AI initiatives would compound the downside. Base CaseCentral scenario $312.7557% Matches the consensus meanAutodesk delivers within its FY27 guidance of $8.295-$8.345 billion of revenue, $8.575-$8.650 billion of billings, approximately 39% non-GAAP operating margin, and $2.725-$2.750 billion of free cash flow. MaintainX contributes to growth but also creates the margin dilution and transaction costs already incorporated into guidance. Bull CaseUpside scenario $456.0025% Autodesk performs near or above the upper ends of its raised FY27 revenue and billings ranges, sustains strong margin conversion, and successfully integrates MaintainX into Autodesk Operations Solutions. Continued double-digit AECO growth, rapid Make growth, and adoption of connected data and AI workflows would reinforce the platform strategy. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |