Aurora Innovation Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryAuto Parts Beta (adjusted)2.10 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $5.54Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $11.1B Enterprise Value $11B Shares Outstanding 2B diluted Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Aurora has moved from initial commercial validation into a demanding industrial-scaling phase. The second-generation International LT platform, ten-route Sun Belt network, nearly 440,000 driverless miles through June 2026, zero disclosed Aurora Driver-attributed collisions, new carrier agreements, and planned manufacturing capacity support a credible path toward broader adoption. The offset is substantial execution dependence: Aurora must expand from its early fleet to 200 driverless trucks by year-end, preserve safety while mileage rises, complete manufacturing industrialization, convert prospective arrangements such as the non-binding Hirschbach memorandum into definitive orders, and transition toward customer-owned Driver-as-a-Service fleets. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$3.59 Mean target$11.22 High · most bullish analyst$18.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $3.5920% Truck production or supplier execution falls short, the fleet misses the 200-truck objective, a material safety event interrupts deployment, or prospective customer arrangements fail to become binding orders. Any combination would weaken evidence that Aurora can convert technical validation into repeatable commercial scale. Base CaseCentral scenario $11.2250% Matches the consensus meanAurora makes material progress toward its fleet and manufacturing targets, but deployment cadence remains operationally complex and larger Driver-as-a-Service arrangements take time to finalize. Existing carrier agreements and the ten-route network provide commercial validation, while supplier concentration, regulatory expansion, and industrialization constrain the pace. Bull CaseUpside scenario $18.0030% Aurora reaches its 200-truck year-end objective, Roush achieves the planned 1,000-truck annualized upfit rate, safety performance remains intact, and customer traction converts into binding multi-year Driver-as-a-Service deployments. Successful execution would validate the second-generation platform and accelerate the shift toward customer-owned fleets. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |