Aurora Cannabis Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryPharmaceuticals Beta (adjusted)1.30 Intrinsic Value $0.49median of 6 methods · middle span $0-$4based on filings through 31 Mar 2025 Market Price $3.90Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 87% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-87%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $246.9M Enterprise Value $109M Shares Outstanding 54.8M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Aurora Cannabis has successfully pivoted toward a high-margin, medical-first strategy, with medical cannabis representing 91% of consolidated net revenue in Q4 2026. While the company has achieved record annual global medical cannabis revenue and adjusted EBITDA alongside a debt-free balance sheet, it faces significant headwinds in fiscal 2027. A 30% reduction in Canadian government medical reimbursement rates is expected to compress domestic margins and cause a temporary decline in total net revenue. Although international growth in Germany and Poland remains robust, execution risks and persistent net losses warrant a cautious Hold recommendation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Canadian medical revenue declines more sharply than anticipated, while international markets face increased competition or regulatory bottlenecks. Margin compression exceeds expectations, dragging adjusted EBITDA back toward negative territory and forcing reliance on the at-the-market equity program to sustain liquidity. Base CaseCentral scenario The company successfully navigates the Canadian reimbursement headwinds by scaling its international medical sales, particularly in Germany and Poland. The integration of Safari Flower Company supports high-margin EU-GMP supply, keeping adjusted gross margins in the mid-to-high 50s and maintaining positive adjusted EBITDA. Bull CaseUpside scenario Aurora successfully executes its medical-first, global strategy, consolidating its position as Canada's largest global medical cannabis exporter and a leader in key European and Australian markets. The company's pivot to high-margin global medical markets (such as Germany, Poland, Australia, and the UK) and away from volatile Canadian consumer cannabis expands consolidated medical segment margins to 70%+, driving positive adjusted EBITDA and sustainable free cash flow generation. Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |