Aura Minerals Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Aura Minerals Inc

ORAToronto Stock Exchange

SectorMaterials

IndustryGold

Beta (adjusted)0.57

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $78.68Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $6.6B

Enterprise Value $6.7B

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend18 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Aura Minerals is positioned for a significant production step-up in 2026, driven by the ramp-up of the Borborema mine and the integration of the newly acquired Mineração Serra Grande (MSG) assets. Despite short-term cost pressures from underground development at MSG, which pushed Q1 2026 AISC to $1,829/oz, the company's operational momentum remains exceptionally strong. Backed by record quarterly adjusted EBITDA of $244 million and a robust gold price environment, Aura offers a compelling combination of high-growth project execution, substantial reserve expansion (Proven & Probable reserves up to 7.2 million GEO), and a highly attractive dividend yield.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets9 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$76.40

Mean target$95.16

High · most bullish analyst$122.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

The bear case involves persistent operational bottlenecks at Borborema, prolonged high-cost underground development at MSG keeping its AISC near $2,000/oz throughout 2026, and a sharp correction in global gold and copper prices. Elevated capital expenditures on growth projects under these conditions would compress margins and limit free cash flow, forcing a reduction in dividend payouts.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The base case assumes Aura successfully executes its 2026 production guidance of 340,000 to 390,000 GEO. Mine sequencing improvements and cost-reduction initiatives at MSG are expected to bear fruit in the second half of the year, bringing consolidated AISC within the guided range of $1,720 to $1,865/oz. Strong cash generation supports ongoing development of the Era Dorada project and expansions at Almas and Borborema, while maintaining healthy dividend distributions.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Strong production growth profile with 2026 guidance representing a 20-36% increase over 2025 levels, and a clear path to >600,000 GEO by 2028.
Substantial expansion of mineral inventory, with Proven & Probable reserves doubling to 7.2 million GEO.
Robust cash flow generation, evidenced by a record Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $244 million and a high dividend payout policy.
Significant production growth, with gold production set to increase approximately 30% in 2026, and EBITDA projected to rise over 130% driven by higher gold prices.

Key Investment Risks

Turnaround risk at the newly integrated MSG operation, which is currently a high-cost asset requiring significant underground infrastructure investment.
Margin compression from rising All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC), driven by inflationary pressures, operational changes, and integration costs.
Geopolitical and country risks associated with operating mines across multiple jurisdictions in Latin America (Brazil, Mexico, Honduras, and Guatemala).
Sensitivity to fluctuations in global gold and copper market prices.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Consolidated AISC consistently exceeding $1,900/oz in the second half of 2026 due to failure in cost-reduction initiatives at MSG.
A prolonged drop in gold prices below $3,500/oz, severely impacting operating margins and cash flow.
Significant delays or capital cost overruns in the construction of the Era Dorada project or the expansions at Almas and Borborema.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.