Auna SA Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryHealth Care Facilities Beta (adjusted)0.74 Intrinsic Value $2.03median of 6 methods · middle span $2-$10based on filings through 30 Jun 2025 Market Price $4.98Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 59% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-59%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $368.8M Enterprise Value $4B Shares Outstanding 67.3M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date19 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Auna S.A. is a leading integrated healthcare platform in Spanish-speaking Latin America (Mexico, Peru, and Colombia) that is successfully transitioning from a period of capital restructuring and operational stabilization in 2025 to a high-growth phase in 2026. By leveraging its unique vertically integrated model (combining oncology and general health plans with a high-complexity hospital network), Auna is capturing significant structural demand in underpenetrated markets. Despite short-term margin pressures from FX volatility and operational overhauls in Mexico, the company's strong top-line momentum, robust free cash flow generation, and successful debt refinancing position it for substantial long-term value creation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$5.00 Mean target$6.99 High · most bullish analyst$9.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario Persistent depreciation of the Peruvian Sol continues to drive large non-cash FX losses, weighing heavily on net income. Operational integration of the new ERP and Hospital Information System in Mexico faces delays, stalling margin recovery. Further government interventions in Colombia's healthcare system disrupt payor relationships and cash collection cycles. Base CaseCentral scenario Auna successfully delivers on its FY 2026 guidance of 12% FX-neutral growth in both revenue and Adjusted EBITDA. The recovery in Mexico continues to gain traction through improved pricing under B2B agreements (such as ISSSTELEON) and higher surgery volumes. In Colombia, payor diversification successfully offsets risks from government-intervened entities, while Peru continues to leverage its scale. Free cash flow remains strong, supporting gradual deleveraging toward the target of below 3.0x. Bull CaseUpside scenario Auna successfully replicates its integrated provider-payer model (the Peruvian 'AunaWay' blueprint) across Mexico and Colombia, driving patient volume to its own hospitals and clinics. This operational execution, combined with the stabilization of Mexican operations (such as the expansion of oncology services via OncoMexico and new high-margin contracts like ISSSTELEON), increases bed utilization from under 50% toward 70%. Concurrently, disciplined cost management and a successful $825 million debt refinancing lower interest expenses, accelerating deleveraging from 3.7x net debt/EBITDA toward its 3.0x target. This operational turnaround and capital structure optimization unlock significant free cash flow inflection, driving massive valuation rerating from depressed multiples. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |