Auburn National Bancorp Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Auburn National Bancorp Inc

AUBNNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryRegional Banks

Beta (adjusted)0.62

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $26.25Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $91.5M

Enterprise Value −$120.2M

Shares Outstanding 3.5M diluted

Last ex-dividend10 Jun 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Auburn National Bancorporation (AUBN) operates as a stable, relationship-driven community bank with a dominant deposit market share in the growing Auburn-Opelika, Alabama MSA. The bank exhibits strong capital adequacy, robust asset quality (with nonperforming assets at just 0.01% of total assets), and a consistent dividend payment history spanning over 30 consecutive years. While Q1 2026 results demonstrated solid profitability improvements—driven by net interest margin expansion to 3.28% and annualized loan growth of 12%—the stock remains a low-liquidity, income-oriented value play rather than a high-growth vehicle. Given the neutral technical momentum and potential headwinds from regional banking deposit competition, a Hold recommendation is warranted for conservative, income-focused portfolios.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

Intensified competition for deposits forces the bank to raise deposit rates, compressing the net interest margin below 3.00%. A local economic slowdown leads to credit normalization, causing nonperforming loans to rise and requiring substantial provisions for credit losses. Loan growth stalls, and compressed earnings pressure dividend coverage.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The bank maintains its dominant local deposit market share and stable net interest margin around 3.20%-3.30%. Loan growth continues at a moderate single-digit pace, supported by local commercial and real estate demand. Credit quality remains exceptionally clean, keeping CECL provisions low. The company continues to pay its quarterly dividend of $0.27 per share, supported by a sustainable payout ratio.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

Auburn National Bancorp offers strong net interest income (NII) growth and a robust loan book, with the majority of its loans invested in commercial real estate. The bank maintains a healthy dividend yield of approximately 4% supported by a manageable payout ratio, alongside an increasing tangible book value. Further NII growth could significantly boost earnings per share.

Scenarios reflect our research view at the research date.

Key Investment Merits

Dominant deposit market share (ranked #1 in Auburn-Opelika MSA for 29 consecutive years).
Strong asset quality with nonperforming assets at an exceptionally low 0.01% of total assets.
Consistent shareholder returns with over 30 consecutive years of dividend payments and a current quarterly dividend of $0.27 per share.
Solid capital position with an equity-to-assets ratio of 9.06% as of March 31, 2026.

Key Investment Risks

Sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations and potential net interest margin compression from rising deposit costs.
Geographic concentration risk, with operations primarily focused in East Alabama.
Low stock trading liquidity due to small market capitalization (~$87M), which can lead to elevated price volatility.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A significant drop in Net Interest Margin below 3.00%.
A material deterioration in credit quality, with nonperforming assets exceeding 0.25% of total assets.
Loss of the #1 deposit market share position in the core Auburn-Opelika market.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.