AT&T Inc Dossier
|
SectorCommunication Services IndustryIntegrated Telecommunication Services Beta (adjusted)0.49 Intrinsic Value $23.44median of 5 methods · middle span $16-$52based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $24.40Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 4% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $167.2B Enterprise Value $284.3B Shares Outstanding 6.9B diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary AT&T enters the second half of 2026 with accelerating Advanced Connectivity growth, strong fiber and wireless subscriber additions, expanding operating leverage and free cash flow above second-quarter guidance. These strengths support the dividend and accelerated repurchases. The offset is acquisition-related leverage: after closing the EchoStar spectrum transaction, management expects leverage near 3.2x before returning toward 2.5x over approximately three years. Fiber ARPU pressure and rapid contraction of the legacy business add execution risk. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$20.00 Mean target$28.71 High · most bullish analyst$36.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $20.0023% Advanced Connectivity growth falls below guidance as fiber ARPU pressure persists, legacy revenue and EBITDA contraction outweigh cost savings, or the enlarged investment program constrains free cash flow. If post-EchoStar leverage remains materially above the approximately 2.5x long-term target, capital-return flexibility and equity resilience would weaken. Base CaseCentral scenario $28.7158% Matches the consensus meanAT&T broadly delivers its 2026 outlook: Advanced Connectivity service revenue grows at least 5%, segment EBITDA grows at least 6%, and free cash flow exceeds $18 billion. Fiber deployment and convergence offset legacy declines, while leverage rises after the EchoStar spectrum acquisition and then begins a gradual path toward management's approximately 2.5x target. Bull CaseUpside scenario $36.0019% Advanced Connectivity service revenue and EBITDA remain above their respective full-year growth thresholds, fiber expansion sustains subscriber momentum, free cash flow exceeds the greater-than-$18 billion outlook, and convergence improves retention. This would strengthen coverage of the dividend and approximately $10 billion of planned 2026 repurchases while enabling faster post-acquisition deleveraging. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |