Atomera Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySemiconductors Beta (adjusted)1.71 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $4.36Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $170.1M Enterprise Value $155M Shares Outstanding 37.5M diluted Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Atomera Inc. is a materials engineering and licensing company that has developed Mears Silicon Technology (MST), a proprietary thin-film technology designed to enhance semiconductor transistor performance and power efficiency. While the technology offers significant theoretical benefits and has gained traction through collaborations (such as with Synopsys and major tool vendors), the company remains in a pre-revenue commercialization phase with minimal current revenues ($11,000 in Q1 2026). A substantial capital raise in early 2026 has extended the cash runway to at least 24 months, mitigating near-term insolvency risks. However, the timeline to commercial royalty generation remains highly uncertain, making the stock a high-risk, high-reward option best suited for a Hold pending concrete commercial licensing agreements. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$10.00 Mean target$10.00 High · most bullish analyst$10.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $4.0015% Customer evaluations fail to transition into commercial royalty-bearing licenses. The cash burn continues at ~$18.5 million non-GAAP operating expenses annually, forcing further dilutive equity raises under the ATM program or registered offerings, depressing the stock price. Base CaseCentral scenario $10.0060% Matches the consensus meanAtomera continues to advance customer evaluations and engineering runs. Revenue remains low in the near term ($50k-$100k per quarter) as customer evaluation cycles take several months. The company utilizes its $41.1 million cash buffer to fund R&D without immediate dilution, maintaining steady progress toward commercialization. Bull CaseUpside scenario $20.0025% Rapid commercial adoption of MST by major foundries and IDMs, particularly in high-growth areas like GaN-on-Silicon for RF/power devices and GAA logic nodes. This triggers upfront licensing fees and high-margin recurring royalties, driving the company to profitability. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |