ATN International Inc Dossier
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SectorCommunication Services IndustryDiversified Telecommunication Services Beta (adjusted)0.71 Intrinsic Value $27.88median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $27.82Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 0% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $428.5M Enterprise Value $624.3M Shares Outstanding 15.5M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Jun 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary ATN International (ATNI) represents a compelling value play in the rural and underserved digital infrastructure sector. Following the completion of its Southwest U.S. tower portfolio sale on June 2, 2026, for $267.7 million in cash, the company has significantly strengthened its balance sheet and simplified its corporate narrative. This transaction allows ATNI to pivot away from a heavy capital expenditure cycle toward a leaner, higher-margin operating model focused on core broadband and fiber connectivity. With a newly appointed CEO, Naji Khoury, who brings nearly 30 years of telecom experience, the company is well-positioned to drive operating cash flows and expand its highly profitable international telecom segment. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$69.00 Mean target$69.00 High · most bullish analyst$69.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $20.0020% The bear case involves prolonged unprofitability in the U.S. Telecom segment as legacy copper-to-fiber transitions face execution delays. Additionally, the loss of high-cost funding support in the U.S. Virgin Islands acts as a persistent headwind, and competitive pressures in rural markets limit ARPU growth, keeping net income in negative territory. Base CaseCentral scenario $28.6050% The base case assumes steady execution of the post-tower sale strategy. Adjusted EBITDA settles within the updated guidance range of $183 million to $193 million. Broadband subscriber growth continues at a modest single-digit pace, and the company uses tower sale proceeds to pay down high-cost debt (including $67.9 million to CoBank), leading to a cleaner balance sheet and stable dividend coverage. Bull CaseUpside scenario $36.0030% The bull case centers on rapid margin expansion as capital intensity drops and high-quality broadband revenues scale. Under new leadership, the company successfully integrates provisional BEAD awards exceeding $150 million in New Mexico and Alaska, driving fiber-to-the-home expansion with minimal capital strain. Operating cash flows rise significantly, supporting further dividend increases beyond the recently announced 5.5% hike. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |