Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc

ATMUNYSE

SectorConsumer Discretionary

IndustryAuto Parts

Beta (adjusted)1.11

Intrinsic Value $43.63median of 6 methods · middle span $38-$67based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $43.42Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 0% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $3.5B

Enterprise Value $4.3B

Shares Outstanding 81.7M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date6 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend27 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. (ATMU) presents a compelling investment opportunity as a newly independent public company following its spin-off from Cummins. The company's business model is highly resilient, with approximately 80% to 81% of net sales generated in the stable, high-margin aftermarket channel. This aftermarket focus provides consistent cash flow generation and shields the company from the cyclicality of original equipment (OE) production. Furthermore, the strategic acquisition of Koch Filter Corporation in early 2026 establishes a high-growth Industrial Solutions segment, expanding Atmus's addressable market into commercial/industrial HVAC, data centers, and power generation. Despite near-term headwinds in OE production volumes, Atmus's strong pricing power, robust free cash flow conversion, and disciplined capital allocation (including share repurchases and dividends) support a constructive outlook with significant valuation upside.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets5 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$56.00

Mean target$65.20

High · most bullish analyst$73.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$58.00

The bear case is driven by moderating pricing benefits into 2026, which puts increased pressure on management's execution around a volume inflection in the second half of the year, potentially leading to slower growth if volume recovery fails to materialize.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$65.20

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes steady execution of Atmus's four-pillar growth strategy, with 2026 net sales and margins landing comfortably within guided ranges. Aftermarket demand remains resilient, offsetting mid-single digit declines in First-Fit OE volumes. The company continues to generate strong free cash flow, supporting its dividend and ongoing share repurchases under its authorized program.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$76.00

The bull case is driven by the acquisition of Koch Filter Corp., which establishes an industrial filtration platform in high-growth end markets like HVAC and data centers, expected to be EBITDA and EPS accretive in year one. Additionally, secular tailwinds from tightening emissions regulations (EPA 2027 NOx standards) and a recovery in North American freight and Class 8 truck builds provide significant upside optionality, supported by a highly recurring aftermarket revenue base (~86%).

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Highly resilient business model with ~80-81% of revenues derived from the recurring aftermarket channel.
Strategic expansion into high-growth industrial markets (data centers, HVAC) via the Koch Filter acquisition.
Strong cash flow generation and high free cash flow conversion supporting shareholder returns (dividends and buybacks).

Key Investment Risks

Cyclical exposure to global on-and-off highway heavy equipment and commercial vehicle production.
Dependence on fluctuating commodity prices (steel, filter media, and petrochemical-based products) which represent a significant portion of cost of sales.
Customer concentration risk, with former parent Cummins historically representing a significant portion of net sales.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A material decline in aftermarket demand or loss of key distribution channel partners.
Failure to achieve projected EBITDA margins and revenue targets for the newly established Industrial Solutions segment.
Severe margin compression driven by unhedged commodity cost inflation that cannot be passed through to customers.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.