Atmos Energy Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Atmos Energy Corp

ATONYSE

SectorUtilities

IndustryGas Utilities

Beta (adjusted)0.74

Intrinsic Value $145.52median of 6 methods · middle span $112-$163based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $156.44Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 7% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $26.4B

Enterprise Value $36.1B

Shares Outstanding 168.1M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend24 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Atmos Energy offers a comparatively visible regulated-utility growth profile: fiscal 2026 diluted-EPS guidance remains $8.40-$8.50, capital investment is expected to approximate $4.2 billion, and the company reports that most capital begins earning a return within twelve months. The positive case is tempered by capital intensity, dependence on constructive regulatory outcomes and capital-market access, operating and cybersecurity hazards, Texas concentration, and policy risks affecting natural gas.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets11 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$170.00

Mean target$188.73

High · most bullish analyst$206.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$170.0020%

Fiscal 2026 diluted EPS falls below the $8.40 guidance floor as regulatory delays, financing pressure, execution issues, adverse weather, operational disruption, cybersecurity events, or policy changes offset the benefits of rate-base investment.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$188.7360%

Matches the consensus mean

Atmos delivers within its reaffirmed $8.40-$8.50 fiscal 2026 diluted-EPS range and completes approximately $4.2 billion of capital investment, with regulatory mechanisms continuing to provide relatively prompt recovery.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$206.0020%

Atmos achieves at least the upper end of fiscal 2026 EPS guidance while regulatory outcomes and timely capital recovery support continued execution of its stated 6%-8% EPS and dividend-per-share growth framework through fiscal 2027. Safety- and reliability-focused investment strengthens rate-base growth without materially weakening the financial profile.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

A fully regulated natural-gas delivery model provides comparatively visible earnings, while 96% of rate base is reported in jurisdictions offering policy support for infrastructure investment.
Approximately 90% of annual capital spending begins earning a return within six months and approximately 99% within twelve months, reducing regulatory lag relative to long-duration recovery models.
The latest quarterly release reaffirmed fiscal 2026 diluted-EPS guidance, reported $355 million of annualized regulatory outcomes, and raised the indicated annual dividend to $4.00 per share, 14.9% above fiscal 2025.

Key Investment Risks

Regulatory and political decisions, including rate-case outcomes, can delay or reduce recovery of infrastructure investment.
The capital-intensive strategy depends on continuing access to debt and equity markets on acceptable terms.
Pipeline hazards, severe weather, technology failures, and cyberattacks could disrupt operations or create significant liabilities.
Concentration in Texas and legislation or regulation intended to reduce fossil-fuel use or greenhouse-gas emissions could adversely affect long-term demand and investment recovery.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.