Atlassian Corp Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryApplication Software Beta (adjusted)1.02 Intrinsic Value $212.19median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $179.29Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 18% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $45.4B Enterprise Value $45.1B Shares Outstanding 260.2M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Atlassian ended FY2026 with strong operating momentum: Q4 revenue increased 28%, cloud revenue increased 31%, subscription ARR reached $6.606 billion, and remaining performance obligations increased 44%. Enterprise deal activity and adoption of Rovo, Teamwork Collection, and the Teamwork Graph support a durable platform opportunity. The offset is a pronounced FY2027 growth normalization, including approximately 13% total-revenue growth, 18% subscription-ARR growth, and a 17% decline in Data Center revenue. A Hold stance is appropriate pending evidence that AI and enterprise adoption can sustain cloud growth near guidance while preserving profitability. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$107.98 Mean target$187.93 High · most bullish analyst$480.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $107.9823% Cloud migrations, enterprise expansions, or AI monetization underperform expectations while Data Center revenue contracts approximately 17% or worse. Growth falls below guidance, customer expansion weakens, and continued investment in AI and enterprise sales limits operating-margin progress. Base CaseCentral scenario $187.9356% Matches the consensus meanExecution broadly tracks management's FY2027 outlook: subscription ARR grows approximately 18%, total revenue grows approximately 13%, cloud revenue grows approximately 25.5%, and GAAP operating margin reaches approximately 4.5%. Cloud migration and enterprise adoption offset the planned Data Center contraction, but growth normalizes materially from FY2026. Bull CaseUpside scenario $480.0021% Enterprise standardization on Atlassian's platform accelerates, Teamwork Collection broadens product adoption, and Rovo and Teamwork Graph usage produces stronger retention and expansion. Cloud growth exceeds the approximately 25.5% FY2027 outlook, while large-contract momentum and AI engagement support sustained operating leverage. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |