ATI Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryMetal Fabrication Beta (adjusted)1.01 Intrinsic Value $116.86median of 6 methods · middle span $57-$331based on filings through 28 Jun 2026 Market Price $189.40Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 38% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $25.8B Enterprise Value $26.8B Shares Outstanding 136.6M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend16 Aug 2016 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary ATI's operating outlook is strong: Q2 2026 sales rose 11% year over year, adjusted EBITDA rose 37%, adjusted EBITDA margin reached 22.6%, backlog reached a record $4.4 billion, and management materially raised full-year adjusted EBITDA, EPS and free-cash-flow guidance. Aerospace and defense represented 68% of Q2 sales, while new capacity and the BWXT agreement support longer-term demand. The investment case is nevertheless balanced by execution costs and qualification work at new facilities, working-capital intensity, commodity and operating risks, and a closing share price of $210.76 on August 28, 2026 after a substantial appreciation within the 52-week range. With the base scenario only modestly above that market price, the risk-reward supports a Hold rather than a Buy. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$191.00 Mean target$248.44 High · most bullish analyst$275.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $191.0017% ATI falls below the low end of its raised guidance because capacity qualifications or manufacturing execution take longer than expected, aerospace supply-chain constraints impede volume conversion, working capital remains elevated, or raw-material and operating disruptions pressure margins and cash flow. A contraction in backlog would reinforce the downside case. Base CaseCentral scenario $248.4456% Matches the consensus meanATI delivers within its raised 2026 ranges of $1.135-$1.185 billion adjusted EBITDA, $4.90-$5.18 adjusted EPS and $550-$600 million adjusted free cash flow. Backlog and aerospace demand remain firm, but execution costs and the amount of improvement already reflected in the August 28 share price limit additional rerating. Bull CaseUpside scenario $275.0027% ATI exceeds the high end of its 2026 guidance as contracted pricing, richer mix and higher production volumes continue, backlog grows beyond $4.4 billion, and new machining and inspection capacity qualifies without material delay. Sustained aerospace, defense and specialty-energy demand supports further earnings expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |