Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty Beta (adjusted)1.00 Intrinsic Value $18.75median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $25.55Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 27% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.2B Enterprise Value $1.2B Shares Outstanding 53.8M diluted Next Earnings Date21 Oct 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings (NYSE: ASIC) represents a high-growth, technology-driven challenger in the highly profitable Excess & Surplus (E&S) insurance market. Following its successful IPO in June 2025, the company has demonstrated strong underwriting discipline, leveraging its proprietary 'productionized underwriting' platform to achieve rapid premium growth while maintaining a combined ratio well below the industry average. Backed by Zimmer Financial Services Group, Ategrity is well-positioned to capture market share in the underserved small-to-medium business (SMB) and middle-market segments. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$28.00 Mean target$29.10 High · most bullish analyst$30.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $28.0020% Elevated claims frequency from litigation trends in cyber and professional liability segments, combined with severe catastrophe losses, pushes the combined ratio above 93%. Growth slows as competition intensifies from established players, and regulatory changes on reserve requirements restrict capital flexibility. Base CaseCentral scenario $29.1050% Matches the consensus meanAtegrity continues to execute its regional and product expansion strategies, maintaining direct written premium growth of approximately 20 percentage points above the broader E&S market. The combined ratio stabilizes in the high-86% to low-87% range, supported by disciplined underwriting and favorable net investment income from elevated yields on its fixed-income portfolio. Bull CaseUpside scenario $30.0030% Accelerated adoption of Ategrity's digital underwriting platform leads to market-leading premium growth and further expense ratio compression. Favorable pricing trends in the E&S market persist, and the company successfully expands its regional strategies in Texas, Florida, and New England, driving the combined ratio down toward 84% and ROE above 20%. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |