Atara Biotherapeutics Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)0.41 Intrinsic Value Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet. Market Price $8.50Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Data confidenceNot applicable Market Cap $85.3M Shares Outstanding 10M diluted Next Earnings Date12 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Atara Biotherapeutics is in a transitional phase, having significantly streamlined its operations by reducing headcount by approximately 90% and transferring the global development and commercialization rights of its lead asset, tabelecleucel (tab-cel), to Pierre Fabre. While a productive meeting with the FDA in May 2026 established a clear path forward for resubmitting the tab-cel BLA (using a single-arm study with historical controls), the company's clinical pipeline remains largely paused or discontinued. Near-term valuation is heavily tied to the regulatory success of tab-cel, which would trigger a crucial $31 million milestone payment. However, with a tight cash position of $8.4 million as of March 31, 2026, and an active going concern warning, the stock carries high risk, justifying a Hold rating until regulatory resubmission timelines and financing structures are solidified. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$10.00 Mean target$13.67 High · most bullish analyst$18.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The resubmission of the tab-cel BLA is delayed, or the FDA raises further concerns regarding the historical control or clinical dataset. Lacking the $31 million milestone payment, Atara is forced to execute highly dilutive equity raises or face severe liquidity shortfalls as its cash runway approaches its limit in mid-2027. Base CaseCentral scenario Pierre Fabre successfully resubmits the tab-cel BLA in late 2026 or early 2027 using the agreed-upon single-arm ALLELE study dataset with longer follow-up. The FDA accepts the filing, and Atara's cash runway is successfully extended into mid-2027 through disciplined cost management and modest ATM utilization, keeping the company afloat until the milestone payment is realized. Bull CaseUpside scenario The bull case for Atara relies on successful FDA approval of tab-cel for EBV+ PTLD following the resubmission of the BLA with the updated ALLELE dataset, triggering milestone payments and high-margin royalty streams from Pierre Fabre. Additionally, positive clinical readouts from the ATA3219 CAR-T program in B-cell malignancies or lupus nephritis would validate Atara's allogeneic EBV T-cell platform, potentially attracting lucrative co-development partnerships and extending the cash runway beyond mid-2027. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |