Astronics Corp Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryAerospace & Defense Beta (adjusted)1.13 Intrinsic Value $15.24median of 5 methods · middle span $15-$23based on filings through 4 Jul 2026 Market Price $67.42Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 77% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (-77%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.9B Enterprise Value $3.2B Shares Outstanding 39.4M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend25 Jan 1994 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Astronics Corporation (ATRO) is experiencing strong operational momentum, driven by robust commercial aerospace demand, higher cabin power and connectivity needs, and significant defense contract wins such as the U.S. Army radio test sets program. This has propelled its backlog to a record $734.3 million and led management to raise its FY2026 revenue guidance to $970 million–$1 billion. However, the stock has surged over 160% in the past year and currently trades at a premium trailing P/E of over 68x, which is significantly higher than its peers and historical averages. Given that the market has largely priced in this growth, and considering the company's substantial debt load of approximately $379 million, a Hold rating is recommended as the risk-reward profile appears balanced at current levels. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$45.73 Mean target$85.98 High · most bullish analyst$100.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $45.7320% Supply chain disruptions, skilled labor shortages, or cost overruns in the Test Systems segment resurface, pressuring margins. High leverage restricts financial flexibility, and any slowdown in commercial aircraft build rates leads to a sharp multiple contraction from current elevated levels. Base CaseCentral scenario $85.9850% Matches the consensus meanAstronics successfully delivers on its record backlog, achieving FY2026 revenues within the guided range of $970 million to $1 billion. Margins continue to expand gradually due to facility rationalization and product mix optimization, while interest expenses decline following refinancing. The stock trades in line with consensus expectations. Bull CaseUpside scenario $100.0030% Operational execution remains flawless with commercial aerospace production rate increases (Boeing 737, Airbus A320) driving higher demand for cabin power and connectivity. The U.S. Army Radio Test Program ramps up smoothly in H2 2026, pushing revenues to the high end of the $1 billion guidance and expanding adjusted operating margins into the high teens. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |