Astrazeneca plc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryPharmaceuticals Beta (adjusted)0.51 Intrinsic Value $211.13median of 6 methods · middle span $135-$419based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $161.47Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 31% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $250.4B Enterprise Value $269.4B Shares Outstanding 1.6B diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date30 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend7 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary AstraZeneca combines resilient H1 2026 execution, confirmed full-year guidance and a broad late-stage pipeline with strong recent clinical readouts. H1 total revenue increased 6% at constant exchange rates and core EPS increased 11%, while Oncology and Rare Disease grew 15% and 11%, respectively. The counterweights are a 5% decline in BioPharmaceuticals, dependence on Oncology for 46% of revenue, and continuing binary clinical-development risk illustrated by the discontinuation of eVOLVE-Lung02. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$184.00 Mean target$213.69 High · most bullish analyst$240.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $184.0020% The bear case is a guidance miss caused by persistent BioPharmaceuticals weakness, slower commercial conversion of pipeline assets, or multiple pivotal-trial setbacks. The risk is amplified by Oncology representing 46% of H1 revenue and by the gap between 2025 revenue of $58.739 billion and the $80 billion 2030 ambition. Base CaseCentral scenario $213.6955% Matches the consensus meanThe base case assumes AstraZeneca delivers its confirmed mid-to-high-single-digit FY2026 revenue growth and low-double-digit core-EPS growth guidance at constant exchange rates. Oncology, Rare Disease and selected respiratory assets offset weaker Cardiovascular, Renal and Metabolism and Infectious Disease performance, while a mixture of successful and unsuccessful trials remains normal for the portfolio. Bull CaseUpside scenario $240.0025% The bull case requires continued delivery at or above FY2026 guidance, successful regulatory conversion of the positive SAFFRON, DESTINY-Lung04 and CROSSING Phase III results, and sustained double-digit growth in Oncology and Rare Disease. This would strengthen confidence in the objective of at least 20 new medicines and $80 billion of revenue by 2030. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |