Astrana Health Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryMedical Care Facilities Beta (adjusted)0.92 Intrinsic Value $94.48median of 6 methods · middle span $36-$313based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $35.57Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 166% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+166%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.8B Enterprise Value $2.3B Shares Outstanding 49.6M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Astrana Health, Inc. (formerly Apollo Medical Holdings) is a leading physician-centric, technology-powered, risk-bearing healthcare management company. The company is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the massive shift toward value-based care in the United States. By leveraging its proprietary AI-driven population health platform, Astrana successfully manages risk-bearing contracts, converting approximately 80% of its Care Partners capitation revenue to full-risk arrangements. Unlike peers struggling with medical cost overruns, Astrana maintains a highly disciplined, profitable model with robust top-line growth and strong free cash flow generation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$41.00 Mean target$51.50 High · most bullish analyst$65.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $41.0010% Regulatory headwinds from CMS risk-adjustment changes impact premium yields more severely than the anticipated 1.5% headwind. Integration of Prospect Health stalls, or unexpected spikes in medical utilization trends compress operating margins, limiting free cash flow generation and slowing deleveraging efforts. Base CaseCentral scenario $51.5060% Matches the consensus meanAstrana delivers on its FY2026 guidance of approximately 24% revenue growth and 29% adjusted EBITDA growth. The company successfully integrates Prospect Health, achieving projected synergies of $12M-$15M, and deleverages its balance sheet to a net leverage ratio at or below 2.0x by year-end. Bull CaseUpside scenario $65.0030% Accelerated expansion of full-risk contracts into new geographic markets (such as Texas) combined with rapid integration of the Prospect Health acquisition. AI-driven automation scales efficiently, driving G&A expenses down while medical cost trends remain significantly better than underwritten expectations, leading to substantial margin expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |