Astera Labs, Inc. Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySemiconductors Beta (adjusted)2.85 Intrinsic Value $214.90median of 6 methods · middle span $101-$332based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $355.97Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 40% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $61.8B Enterprise Value $61.6B Shares Outstanding 183.5M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Astera Labs has exceptional operating momentum: Q2 2026 revenue reached $392.4 million, increasing 27% sequentially and 104% year over year, while GAAP operating margin reached 22.7%. Management expects a further Q3 revenue step-up to $540-$560 million as Scorpio X-Series switches ramp and become the largest product family. The company also has credible longer-duration optionality in optical interconnects, custom connectivity and a broader Scorpio roadmap. The balanced rating reflects the execution risk inherent in an unusually steep production ramp, customer concentration and AI-demand sensitivity, semiconductor cyclicality, product-transition risk, and expected gross-margin moderation. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$190.00 Mean target$391.77 High · most bullish analyst$500.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $190.0017% Scorpio deployments are delayed or underperform expectations, customer purchasing becomes more volatile, or competitive and architectural changes slow adoption. Revenue falls below the guided ramp, gross margin compresses materially, and investment in new products and global capacity limits operating leverage. Base CaseCentral scenario $391.7760% Matches the consensus meanAstera substantially delivers its Q3 ramp, but growth normalizes after the initial Scorpio production inflection and gross margin settles below recent peak levels. Continued design wins and portfolio expansion support durable growth, offset by concentration, cyclicality and execution risks. Bull CaseUpside scenario $500.0023% Scorpio scales faster than current guidance, becomes the dominant product family without material execution problems, and design wins broaden across customers. Aries, Taurus and other connectivity products remain strong while optical and custom solutions begin to expand the addressable opportunity. Sustained high growth and resilient margins support a premium outcome. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |