Astec Industries Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryFarm & Heavy Construction Machinery Beta (adjusted)1.23 Intrinsic Value $29.36median of 6 methods · middle span $19-$41based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $40.24Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 27% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $925.2M Enterprise Value $1.2B Shares Outstanding 23.3M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend10 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Astec Industries (ASTE) is navigating a complex operational phase characterized by robust top-line growth and backlog expansion, offset by persistent margin pressures from tariffs, freight, and product mix. While the company's long-term 2030 strategic plan targets $1.8B in revenue and a highly profitable shift toward digital services and aftermarket parts (40-50% of sales), near-term execution remains under strain. The Q1 2026 earnings miss highlights these headwinds, making a Hold recommendation appropriate until pricing actions and operational efficiencies under the OneASTEC initiative consistently translate into improved profitability. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$60.00 Mean target$67.25 High · most bullish analyst$78.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario The bear case reflects persistent supply chain bottlenecks, elevated freight costs, and tariff pressures that continue to erode operating margins. If infrastructure project delays worsen or the broader industrial sector experiences a cyclical slowdown, backlog conversion could slow down, leading to a downward revision of full-year guidance. Base CaseCentral scenario The base case assumes that Astec successfully mitigates near-term cost pressures through its ongoing pricing initiatives and operational transformation. Backlog remains healthy, supported by federal infrastructure funding and stable state/local budgets. Margins gradually recover in the second half of 2026, allowing the company to meet its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $170M to $190M. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |