Assured Guaranty Ltd Dossier - Source-backed chat

Assured Guaranty Ltd

AGONYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryInsurance - Specialty

Beta (adjusted)0.83

Intrinsic Value $89.22median of 4 methods · middle span $75-$103based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $67.72Price as of 30 Sep 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 32% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $3B

Enterprise Value $4.4B

Shares Outstanding 43.6M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026

Last ex-dividend20 Aug 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) presents a robust operational profile with record-high book value metrics and strong new business production, highlighted by a 76% earnings beat in Q1 2026. However, the stock is currently a Hold due to a strategic shift in capital allocation—specifically a reduction in quarterly share repurchases from $75 million to $30 million to fund its expansion into annuity reinsurance (Assured Life Re). Additionally, sentiment is weighed down by credit headwinds from below-investment-grade exposures, notably Brightline Trains Florida and PREPA, which drove $44 million in economic loss development in Q1 2026.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets3 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$80.00

Mean target$90.33

High · most bullish analyst$97.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$80.0020%

Severe credit deterioration or bankruptcy at Brightline Trains Florida forces Assured Guaranty to step in and cover substantial debt service payments, leading to recognized loss expenses that exceed unearned premium reserves. Simultaneously, the expansion into annuity reinsurance experiences low margins or high integration costs, and the reduced share buyback program fails to support the stock price, causing a re-rating toward its 52-week lows.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$90.3350%

Matches the consensus mean

The company maintains steady underwriting profitability in its core financial guaranty business while gradually building out its annuity reinsurance platform. Share repurchases continue at the reduced run rate of $30 million per quarter. Credit exposures in Brightline and PREPA remain manageable and within unearned premium reserves, but persistent investor caution around the capital allocation shift and credit risks keeps the stock trading at a significant discount to book value.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$97.0030%

Resurgent demand for financial guarantees drives a massive acceleration in PVP (which nearly doubled YoY in Q1 2026 to $73 million). The newly launched Assured Life Re successfully scales to achieve its targeted 10-12% steady-state returns, diversifying earnings. Meanwhile, credit resolutions for Brightline and PREPA occur without material cash losses, allowing the company to trade closer to its historical multiples and its adjusted book value of $188.74.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Record-high per-share value metrics with Adjusted Book Value at $188.74 and Adjusted Operating Shareholders' Equity at $128.61 as of March 31, 2026.
Strong momentum in new business production, with Q1 2026 PVP surging 87% year-over-year to $73 million.
Successful long-term track record of capital return, having repurchased 81% of outstanding shares since 2013 and raised dividends for 14 consecutive years.

Key Investment Risks

Credit exposure to troubled below-investment-grade credits, specifically Brightline Trains Florida ($1.13 billion insured senior bonds) and PREPA.
Strategic execution risk associated with the pivot into the highly competitive life and annuity reinsurance market via Assured Life Re.
Reduced near-term shareholder returns due to the management's decision to lower the quarterly share buyback run rate to $30 million.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

A formal bankruptcy filing or debt default by Brightline Trains Florida that results in immediate cash claims on Assured Guaranty.
A significant downgrade of Assured Guaranty's financial strength ratings by major rating agencies (S&P, KBRA).
Failure of the annuity reinsurance segment to break even or show positive operating income over the next four quarters.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.