Associated Banc-Corp Dossier
|
SectorFinancials IndustryBanks - Regional Beta (adjusted)0.84 Intrinsic Value $26.61median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $28.65Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 7% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.4B Enterprise Value $4.2B Shares Outstanding 178.5M diluted Next Earnings Date22 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend1 Sep 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Associated Banc-Corp (NYSE: ASB) represents a compelling regional banking play at an attractive valuation. The company has successfully completed its strategic acquisition of American National Corporation, establishing a strong foothold in the high-growth Omaha market and deepening its Twin Cities presence. ASB's ongoing pivot toward diversified commercial banking (C&I) is driving robust loan growth and net interest margin stability, supported by an asset-sensitive balance sheet that benefits from a higher-for-longer interest rate environment. Trading near book value and at a discount to regional peers, the stock offers a solid dividend yield and clear catalysts for valuation re-rating as merger synergies are realized. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$33.00 Mean target$34.44 High · most bullish analyst$36.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $33.00 Integration delays or high technology conversion costs during the Q3 2026 transition lead to customer attrition. Broader economic slowdown in the Midwest increases credit provisions, while unexpected interest rate cuts compress net interest margins, limiting loan growth and keeping the stock discounted relative to book value. Base CaseCentral scenario $34.44 Matches the consensus meanSuccessful system and branch conversion of American National in Q3 2026 with stable customer retention. C&I loan growth meets the 9%-10% target range, and net interest income grows by 7%-8% for the full year. The stock's valuation multiple expands moderately toward the peer average as execution risks diminish. Bull CaseUpside scenario $36.00 Rapid integration of American National Bank unlocks higher-than-expected cost synergies and accelerates market share gains in Omaha and Minneapolis. Strong organic C&I loan growth in expansion markets like Dallas, combined with sustained high interest rates, drives net interest margin expansion above 3.10% and pushes ROE past 12%. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |