Assembly Biosciences Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryBiotechnology Beta (adjusted)1.06 Intrinsic Value $12.86median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $23.49Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 45% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $478.3M Enterprise Value $232.8M Shares Outstanding 19.8M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Assembly Biosciences is a high-potential, clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on serious viral and liver diseases. The company's investment thesis is anchored by its robust 12-year strategic partnership with Gilead Sciences, which provides substantial financial backing, validation, and risk-sharing. Recent positive Phase 1b data for its herpes simplex virus (HSV) candidates (ABI-5366 and ABI-1179) and the expansion of its oral NTCP inhibitor (ABI-6250) into cholestatic liver diseases highlight a highly productive pipeline. Backed by a strong cash position of $226.6 million (projected to fund operations into 2028), Assembly Bio offers a compelling risk-reward profile for biotech investors. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$43.00 Mean target$50.00 High · most bullish analyst$62.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $22.0015% Gilead's development plans for the HSV program are delayed or less ambitious than expected, or Assembly Bio's opt-in decision leads to higher-than-anticipated R&D expenses that deplete cash reserves faster than projected. Clinical setbacks in the ABI-6250 program or failure to secure a partner for the HBV candidate (ABI-4334) depress valuation. Base CaseCentral scenario $44.0060% Assembly Bio successfully transitions ABI-6250 into Phase 2 trials by late 2026. Gilead continues development of the HSV program, providing steady milestone payments and validation. The company maintains its cash runway into 2028, minimizing near-term dilution risks. Bull CaseUpside scenario $62.0025% Gilead fully funds and aggressively advances the HSV helicase-primase inhibitor program, and Assembly Bio opts into the 40% U.S. cost-profit share, capturing massive commercial upside. Concurrently, ABI-6250 delivers outstanding Phase 2 data in HDV and cholestatic liver diseases, establishing it as a best-in-class oral alternative to injectables. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |