ASML Holding N.V. Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustrySemiconductor Materials & Equipment Beta (adjusted)1.24 Intrinsic Value $1,438.12median of 6 methods · middle span $1,197-$5,059based on filings through 31 Dec 2025 Market Price $1,811.67Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 21% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $695.9B Enterprise Value $687.3B Shares Outstanding 388.9M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date14 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend28 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary ASML's operating momentum is exceptionally strong: second-quarter 2026 sales and gross margin exceeded guidance, management raised full-year sales guidance to EUR 43 billion-EUR 45 billion and gross-margin guidance to 54%-56%, and AI-driven Logic and Memory investment is supporting strong order intake and customer capacity expansion. The long-term case remains underpinned by rising lithography intensity, EUV adoption and ASML's 2030 opportunity of approximately EUR 44 billion-EUR 60 billion of annual revenue at a 56%-60% gross margin. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$895.73 Mean target$2,177.10 High · most bullish analyst$2,875.22 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $895.7320% Export restrictions, customer project delays, supply-chain constraints or weaker non-AI semiconductor demand cause sales to fall below the upgraded 2026 range or gross margin below 54%. Capacity investments then run ahead of realized demand, delaying progress toward ASML's 2030 opportunity. Base CaseCentral scenario $2,177.1055% Matches the consensus meanASML delivers within its upgraded 2026 guidance of EUR 43 billion-EUR 45 billion in sales and 54%-56% gross margin, supported by AI-related demand, EUV growth and a larger installed-base business. Capacity expansion proceeds broadly as planned, but export-control exposure and normal order timing create quarterly volatility. Bull CaseUpside scenario $2,875.2225% AI infrastructure investment remains durable, advanced Logic and Memory customers execute accelerated capacity plans, and ASML successfully expands 2027 low-NA EUV and DUV immersion capacity by 30% from 2026 levels. Sales and margins remain at or above the upper ends of 2026 guidance and the business progresses toward the upper half of its 2030 revenue and margin opportunity. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |