ASE Technology Holding CoLtd ADR Dossier - Source-backed chat

ASE Technology Holding CoLtd ADR

ASXTaiwan Stock Exchange

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySemiconductors

Beta (adjusted)1.47

Intrinsic Value $9.48median of 5 methods · middle span $9-$11based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $44.46Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 79% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (-79%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $115.8B

Enterprise Value $119.3B

Shares Outstanding 4.3B diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend6 Jul 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

ASE entered the second half of 2026 with exceptional operating momentum: July consolidated revenue increased 43.2% year over year and ATM revenue increased 49.5%, following second-quarter consolidated revenue growth of 26.7% and expansion of the ATM gross margin to 27.3%. However, the ADR last traded at $37.78, indicating that substantial growth expectations are already reflected in the price. Capital intensity, customer concentration, weak EMS profitability and semiconductor cyclicality limit the margin of safety.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets1 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$48.00

Mean target$48.00

High · most bullish analyst$48.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$48.0020%

Semiconductor demand normalizes abruptly, ATM monthly revenue growth turns non-positive, and underutilization pushes ATM gross margin below 25%. High capital expenditure and customer concentration amplify the downside.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$48.0056%

Matches the consensus mean

ATM growth moderates from July's unusually strong rate but remains positive, while ATM gross margin stays near the upper-20% range and EMS remains profitable.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$48.0024%

July's 49.5% year-over-year ATM growth proves durable, advanced packaging and testing utilization remain strong, and operating leverage lifts ATM profitability beyond the second-quarter level. Continued computing demand and capacity additions support a premium valuation.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

July 2026 consolidated net revenue increased 43.2% year over year, while ATM net revenue increased 49.5%, demonstrating strong second-half entry momentum.
Second-quarter consolidated operating margin reached 11.1%, while ATM gross margin expanded to 27.3% and ATM operating margin reached 15.7%.
ATM computing exposure increased to 30% of revenue from 24% a year earlier, and installed testers increased to 8,348 from 6,797, positioning ASE for computing and advanced-packaging demand.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter equipment capital expenditure was US$1.695 billion, while the reported net-debt-to-equity ratio rose to 0.47 from 0.40 at the end of the preceding quarter.
ASE's five largest ATM customers represented approximately 44% of total net revenue, and one customer represented more than 10%.
EMS gross margin declined sequentially to 8.9% from 9.5%, and EMS operating margin declined to 2.4% from 3.0%.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.