Ascendis Pharma A/S Dossier - Source-backed chat

Ascendis Pharma A/S

ASNDNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)0.56

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $227.83Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $15B

Enterprise Value $15.1B

Shares Outstanding 60.6M diluted

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Ascendis entered the second half of 2026 with strong commercial momentum: second-quarter product revenue increased 105% year over year to €315 million, led by YORVIPATH, while the newly launched YUVIWEL had more than 220 U.S. patient enrollments by July 31. The investment case also benefits from label-expansion programs, an expected fourth-quarter European decision for YUVIWEL and management's expectation of more than €500 million of 2026 operating cash flow. Offsetting these strengths, YUVIWEL remains early in its launch, European approval is pending, and the BioMarin settlement requires royalties of 20% on U.S. and 18% on specified international net sales through May 20, 2030.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets18 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$261.45

Mean target$310.20

High · most bullish analyst$361.29

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$261.4518%

YUVIWEL reimbursement conversion weakens, European approval or planned development programs are delayed, commercial expenses remain elevated and the BioMarin royalties materially reduce product economics. A failure to exceed €500 million of 2026 operating cash flow would undermine the operating-leverage thesis.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$310.2058%

Matches the consensus mean

YORVIPATH remains the principal growth driver, SKYTROFA contributes a comparatively mature revenue stream, and YUVIWEL scales progressively from its early U.S. launch while absorbing the settlement royalties. Pipeline and European regulatory progress broadly follow company timelines, and 2026 operating cash flow exceeds €500 million.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$361.2924%

Commercial uptake remains strong across the three-product portfolio; YUVIWEL reimbursement and patient conversion improve from early-launch levels; European approval arrives during the fourth quarter; label-expansion studies advance on schedule; and Ascendis exceeds its operating-cash-flow expectation.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter 2026 product revenue reached €315 million, 105% above the prior-year quarter, with YORVIPATH contributing €252 million.
YUVIWEL recorded more than 220 unique U.S. patient enrollments through July 31, 2026, and more than 65% had reimbursement approval.
The pipeline offers additional growth options through YORVIPATH and SKYTROFA label expansion, infant achondroplasia development, hypochondroplasia development and combination therapy.

Key Investment Risks

The BioMarin settlement requires royalties equal to 20% of U.S. and 18% of European Union, South Korean and Brazilian net sales of covered navepegritide products through May 20, 2030.
YUVIWEL remains in an early U.S. launch phase, making patient conversion, persistence, payer access and net pricing key execution variables.
The European YUVIWEL application remains under review, while planned indication expansions depend on successful clinical execution and future regulatory decisions.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.