Asbury Automotive Group Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustryAuto & Truck Dealerships Beta (adjusted)0.82 Intrinsic Value $248.80median of 6 methods · middle span $209-$611based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $172.30Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 44% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $3.1B Enterprise Value $6.1B Shares Outstanding 18.6M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend30 Jul 2008 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Asbury Automotive Group (NYSE: ABG) is navigating a complex operational transition characterized by a full-scale dealer management system (DMS) migration to Tekion and structural accounting headwinds from its Total Care Auto (TCA) segment. While the company's high-margin Parts & Service business remains highly resilient (growing 7% in Q1 2026), near-term profitability is pressured by cyclical normalization in new vehicle margins and severe weather disruptions. Trading at a low forward multiple, the stock offers long-term value, but near-term catalysts are limited until the Tekion rollout is completed in Fall 2026 and leverage is brought back below the 3.0x target. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$190.00 Mean target$254.20 High · most bullish analyst$315.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $190.00 Integration friction from the Tekion rollout leads to prolonged operational disruptions and elevated SG&A expenses. Normalizing vehicle margins contract faster than expected, and TCA accounting deferrals pressure consolidated EPS more severely than projected, pushing leverage above 3.5x and delaying share repurchases. Base CaseCentral scenario $254.20 Matches the consensus meanAsbury successfully completes its Tekion DMS rollout by Fall 2026, with operational efficiencies beginning to materialize in early 2027. Parts & Service continues to grow at mid-single digits, offsetting soft same-store vehicle sales. Leverage gradually declines toward the 3.0x target by the end of 2026 as cash proceeds from completed dealership divestitures are applied to debt reduction. Bull CaseUpside scenario $315.00 Rapid realization of Tekion-driven efficiencies drives SG&A as a percentage of gross profit down to the mid-60s faster than expected. Stronger-than-anticipated SAAR recovery and robust parts and service demand accelerate deleveraging below 3.0x, allowing the company to resume aggressive share repurchases under its replenished $500 million authorization. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |