Artivion Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryMedical Devices Beta (adjusted)1.18 Intrinsic Value $20.81median of 3 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $22.82Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 9% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.1B Enterprise Value $1.4B Shares Outstanding 51M diluted Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend9 Dec 2015 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Artivion is transitioning into a high-growth aortic-focused medical technology leader, catalyzed by the strategic acquisition of Endospan and its FDA-approved NEXUS Aortic Arch System. While near-term headwinds including slower AMDS starter-set adoption and international softness have prompted a guidance trim, the company's underlying operating leverage remains robust. With gross margins holding near 65% and adjusted EBITDA expanding, Artivion is well-positioned to capture a substantial share of the $600 million global aortic arch market starting in 2027. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$38.00 Mean target$42.03 High · most bullish analyst$48.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $38.00 Integration of Endospan faces regulatory or commercial delays, pushing the NEXUS U.S. launch past January 2027. Continued hospital capital constraints limit AMDS starter-set sales, and international distributor issues persist, leading to flat revenue growth and margin compression. Base CaseCentral scenario $42.03 Matches the consensus meanArtivion successfully integrates Endospan, incurring $8 million in transition expenses in FY 2026. Constant currency revenue grows at 7-11% in FY 2026, with NEXUS contributing meaningful U.S. revenues in FY 2027. EBITDA margins expand by ~100 bps, and leverage remains manageable. Bull CaseUpside scenario $48.00 Rapid clinical adoption of the NEXUS Aortic Arch System in the U.S. drives high-margin revenue growth starting in early 2027, while AMDS hospital purchasing bottlenecks resolve faster than anticipated. Operating leverage drives EBITDA margins toward 25%, leading to significant multiple expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |