Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryAsset Management Beta (adjusted)1.45 Intrinsic Value $41.77median of 6 methods · middle span $37-$46based on filings through 31 Mar 2026 Market Price $36.12Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 16% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $2.6B Enterprise Value $2.4B Shares Outstanding 66.3M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend17 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Artisan Partners Asset Management (APAM) is navigating a complex transition period characterized by persistent net outflows in its core active equity strategies, offset by strong performance and organic growth in its credit and alternatives platforms. While the recent acquisition of Grandview Property Partners expands its private equity real estate capabilities, near-term headwinds—including the termination of a $5.7 billion sub-advisory mandate in June 2026 and client de-risking—continue to pressure AUM. However, the stock remains highly attractive to income-focused investors due to its robust variable dividend policy, which yields approximately 8-10% and is backed by a strong balance sheet with minimal leverage. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$35.00 Mean target$39.25 High · most bullish analyst$45.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $33.0020% Accelerating active-to-passive migration and further large mandate terminations severely depress the AUM fee base. Market depreciation compounds flow pressures, forcing a significant reduction in the quarterly variable dividend and multiple contraction. Base CaseCentral scenario $39.2560% Matches the consensus meanEquity outflows persist but are gradually mitigated by steady inflows into credit and emerging market strategies. Operating margins remain stable around 30-31%, and the firm continues to distribute ~80% of cash generation via quarterly dividends, maintaining its high-yield profile. Bull CaseUpside scenario $45.0020% A rapid turnaround in global equity sentiment triggers a return of active equity inflows. Concurrently, the credit and alternatives platforms (including Grandview) scale faster than anticipated, driving operating margin expansion and substantial special dividends. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |