Arthur J Gallagher & Co Dossier - Source-backed chat

Arthur J Gallagher & Co

AJGNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryInsurance Brokers

Beta (adjusted)0.66

Intrinsic Value $264.70median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $228.11Price as of 30 Sep 2026

UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 16% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $58.5B

Enterprise Value $70.6B

Shares Outstanding 257.5M diluted

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend8 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Gallagher entered the second half of 2026 with strong operating momentum: second-quarter combined Brokerage and Risk Management revenue grew 24%, organic growth was 6%, and adjusted diluted EPS increased to $2.84 from $2.30. Risk Management organic growth reached 12%, while the Brokerage business generated 5% organic growth. The counterweight is execution and financing risk following the approximately $14 billion AssuredPartners acquisition. Second-quarter Brokerage adjusted EBITDAC margin was 33.3%, versus 36.1% a year earlier, and acquisition-integration costs remained material.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets18 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$250.00

Mean target$290.44

High · most bullish analyst$388.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$250.0019%

The downside case combines weaker insurance pricing or client activity with slower AssuredPartners integration, elevated integration costs and failure to realize expected synergies. The acquisition's scale and associated borrowings would amplify the effect of operational underperformance, while lower organic growth and sustained Brokerage margin compression would weaken the earnings trajectory.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$290.4458%

Matches the consensus mean

The modal outcome is continued mid-single-digit combined organic growth, supported by resilient client demand and acquisition roll-in. AssuredPartners integration progresses without a major disruption, but integration expense, amortization, financing costs and normalization from unusually high prior-year interest income constrain near-term margin expansion.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$388.0023%

Client retention, new-business production and demand for advice, analytics and specialty expertise remain strong. Successful AssuredPartners integration, cross-selling and continued disciplined tuck-in acquisitions—including digital capabilities such as Apollo—could sustain above-market organic growth and realize the double-digit adjusted EPS accretion expected when AssuredPartners closed.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Second-quarter combined Brokerage and Risk Management organic growth was 6%, with management reporting strong retention, outstanding new-business generation and robust demand for advisory and specialty capabilities.
AssuredPartners materially broadens Gallagher's middle-market property/casualty, employee-benefits and specialty capabilities; at closing, Gallagher expected the transaction to produce double-digit adjusted EPS accretion including synergies.
Gallagher continues to add capabilities through tuck-in acquisitions; the August 2026 Apollo acquisition added a Canadian digital broker and MGA with a proprietary AI-supported placement platform.

Key Investment Risks

AssuredPartners was Gallagher's largest acquisition, making operational integration, employee retention, synergy realization and cultural alignment unusually important to the investment outcome.
At June 30, 2026, Gallagher reported $9.550 billion of public debt, $2.683 billion of private-placement borrowings and $1.365 billion drawn under its line of credit, increasing sensitivity to financing costs and execution delays.
Second-quarter Brokerage adjusted EBITDAC margin declined to 33.3% from 36.1%, while Brokerage acquisition-integration costs were $113 million, demonstrating the near-term earnings burden from integration and prior-period interest-income comparisons.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.