Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc

ARWRNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)1.20

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $65.45Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Data confidenceNot applicable

Market Cap $9.2B

Enterprise Value $9.9B

Shares Outstanding 141.7M diluted

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date24 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Arrowhead has transitioned to a commercial-stage RNAi company through REDEMPLO and has generated compelling pivotal evidence supporting expansion of plozasiran into severe hypertriglyceridemia. SHASTA-3 and SHASTA-4 produced deep triglyceride reductions, significantly fewer acute-pancreatitis events, quarterly dosing, and a generally favorable safety profile. The opportunity remains subject to timely sNDA submission and approval, durable commercial uptake, payer execution, and continued safety monitoring.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets11 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$100.00

Mean target$110.18

High · most bullish analyst$126.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$100.0017%

The bear case assumes delay or adverse regulatory action for the sHTG expansion, slowing REDEMPLO prescription growth, or emergence of clinically meaningful safety or tolerability concerns. These outcomes would leave valuation more dependent on a still-developing commercial franchise and clinical-stage pipeline.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$110.1858%

Matches the consensus mean

The base case assumes that Arrowhead submits the plozasiran sHTG sNDA by year-end 2026 and maintains positive REDEMPLO launch momentum, while approval timing, payer adoption, and broader commercial penetration remain uncertain.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$126.0025%

The bull case assumes an on-time sHTG sNDA filing, successful use of the Priority Review Voucher, favorable regulatory review, continued REDEMPLO prescription growth, and further validation of zodasiran and the obesity pipeline. Expansion beyond rare FCS into the much broader sHTG population would materially strengthen the commercial profile.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

REDEMPLO made Arrowhead a commercial-stage company and is approved for FCS in the United States, European Union, China, Australia, and Canada.
Plozasiran achieved median triglyceride reductions of 79% and 81% in SHASTA-3 and SHASTA-4 and reduced pooled acute-pancreatitis events by 78% versus placebo.
Quarterly dosing, more than 90% of treated patients reaching triglycerides below 500 mg/dL, and broadly comparable overall adverse-event rates support a differentiated clinical profile.
Pipeline breadth provides additional optionality, including enrolled Phase 3 zodasiran development and early clinical signals from ARO-INHBE in obesity and metabolic disease.

Key Investment Risks

REDEMPLO commercialization remains early; prescription growth and expanding prescriber participation do not yet establish durable market penetration.
The broader severe-hypertriglyceridemia indication remains unapproved and depends on timely submission and successful regulatory review.
Worsening glycemic-control events occurred more frequently with plozasiran than placebo in the pooled SHASTA studies and require ongoing monitoring.
Several important pipeline programs remain in clinical development and retain substantial efficacy, safety, execution, and regulatory risk.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.