Arrow Financial Corp Dossier
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SectorFinancials IndustryRegional Banks Beta (adjusted)0.86 Intrinsic Value $36.72median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $36.85Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 0% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $682.6M Enterprise Value $500.1M Shares Outstanding 16.3M diluted Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend11 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Arrow Financial Corp (AROW) is demonstrating a strong fundamental turnaround characterized by expanding net interest margins (reaching 3.48% in Q1 2026) and robust profitability (1.23% ROA). The company's strategic acquisition of Adirondack Bancorp, Inc., which has cleared major regulatory and shareholder hurdles, is set to expand its upstate New York footprint by approximately $1 billion in assets. This bolt-on transaction, combined with disciplined credit underwriting (nonperforming assets at 0.20%), positions Arrow for superior regional market share gains and efficient capital deployment. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$38.00 Mean target$41.00 High · most bullish analyst$43.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 19 Jun 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $28.0015% Integration friction with Adirondack Bancorp leads to deposit attrition and elevated non-interest expenses. Severe regional economic downturn pressures asset quality, causing nonperforming assets to rise above 0.50% and compressing NIM below 3.00%, limiting EPS to $2.45. Base CaseCentral scenario $38.7650% Successful closing and steady integration of Adirondack Bancorp. NIM stabilizes around 3.30% to 3.40% as interest rates normalize. Loan growth continues at a moderate pace in upstate New York, supported by strong asset quality and low charge-offs, driving EPS to consensus estimates of $3.50. Bull CaseUpside scenario $43.0035% Rapid integration of Adirondack Bancorp yields higher-than-expected cost synergies and cross-selling opportunities in wealth management and insurance. NIM remains elevated above 3.50% due to favorable loan yields and sticky community deposits, driving EPS toward $4.40. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |