Arrow Electronics Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryElectronics & Computer Distribution Beta (adjusted)1.13 Intrinsic Value $389.50median of 6 methods · middle span $120-$906based on filings through 4 Jul 2026 Market Price $227.00Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Significantly undervaluedIntrinsic value is 72% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% marker beyond scale (+72%) Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $11.6B Enterprise Value $13.5B Shares Outstanding 51.5M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend17 Dec 1986 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Arrow's operating recovery is strong: second-quarter 2026 sales increased 32% year over year, Global Components sales increased 39%, and consolidated operating income nearly doubled. The Q3 sales and EPS outlook indicates continued momentum. However, the August 31 intraday share price of $202.47 already reflects substantial improvement, while ECS operating margin contracted and non-cancellable purchase obligations remain a material execution risk. The risk-adjusted base case therefore supports a Hold rather than a more aggressive rating. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$200.00 Mean target$235.00 High · most bullish analyst$250.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $200.0020% The components recovery loses momentum, book-to-bill falls to parity or below, and results miss the low end of Q3 guidance. Continued ECS margin pressure and losses associated with non-cancellable purchase obligations reduce earnings quality and constrain capital returns. Base CaseCentral scenario $235.0055% Matches the consensus meanGlobal Components continues growing but moderates from the exceptional first-half pace, while ECS revenue grows without promptly restoring its prior-year margin. Q3 results remain within management's $9.60-$10.20 billion sales and $4.72-$4.92 diluted-EPS guidance ranges. Bull CaseUpside scenario $250.0025% Global Components demand remains above replacement levels, book-to-bill stays above parity, and the segment sustains its 5.4% operating margin. ECS converts AI, cloud, security and hybrid-infrastructure opportunities into higher-margin revenue, while the $1 billion repurchase authorization enhances per-share value. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |