Arm Holdings plc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Arm Holdings plc

ARMNASDAQ

SectorInformation Technology

IndustrySemiconductors

Beta (adjusted)2.93

Intrinsic Value $52.62median of 6 methods · middle span $41-$135based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $289.66Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Significantly overvaluedIntrinsic value is 82% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

marker beyond scale (-82%)

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $309.4B

Enterprise Value $306.3B

Moat Rating None

Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Arm is delivering strong operating momentum: first-quarter FYE27 revenue increased 22% to a record USD 1.29 billion, data-center royalties more than doubled, cumulative Neoverse shipments exceeded 1.5 billion cores, and disclosed Arm AGI CPU demand exceeded USD 2 billion across FYE27-FYE28. The move from IP and compute subsystems into production silicon expands Arm's opportunity but also introduces manufacturing, deployment and customer-conversion execution risk. A Hold stance is appropriate because the fundamental evidence is strong.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets38 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$125.00

Mean target$287.79

High · most bullish analyst$500.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$125.0018%

AGI CPU deployments or customer conversion fall short of the disclosed demand pipeline, while licensing timing and semiconductor-industry cyclicality slow company-wide growth to 10% or less. The expansion into production silicon could then add execution complexity without generating the anticipated growth.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$287.7958%

Matches the consensus mean

Royalty growth remains supported by Armv9, compute-subsystem adoption and data-center penetration, while AGI CPU commercialization progresses but contributes gradually. Growth moderates from the latest 22% rate without undermining Arm's expanding role across cloud, edge and physical AI.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$500.0024%

Arm sustains revenue growth above 20%, converts more than USD 2 billion of disclosed AGI CPU demand into deployments, and continues gaining data-center adoption as Neoverse shipments expand beyond 1.5 billion cores.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

First-quarter FYE27 revenue reached a record USD 1.29 billion, increasing 22% year over year.
Data-center royalties more than doubled year over year, while cumulative Arm Neoverse shipments surpassed 1.5 billion cores.
Arm AGI CPU customer demand exceeded USD 2 billion across FYE27-FYE28, with initial products delivered to multiple customers.

Key Investment Risks

Expansion from IP and compute subsystems into production silicon introduces manufacturing-capacity, product-ramp and customer-deployment execution risks.
Arm depends on semiconductor demand, customer product success, third-party manufacturing and a limited number of significant customers.
The timing of large license agreements can create variability even when the underlying adoption trend remains favorable.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.