Arista Networks Inc Dossier
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SectorInformation Technology IndustryCommunications Equipment Beta (adjusted)1.41 Intrinsic Value $142.49median of 6 methods · middle span $129-$323based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $203.59Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 30% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $256.8B Shares Outstanding 1.3B diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Arista entered the second half of 2026 with exceptional operating momentum: Q2 revenue increased 37.7% year over year to $3.036 billion, non-GAAP operating margin reached 49.9%, and management guided Q3 revenue to approximately $3.3 billion. The 1.6 Tbps Etherlink roadmap, relationships with major cloud and AI customers, and expansion into campus, branch, SD-WAN, and security provide multiple growth vectors. However, the August 28 closing price of $195.38 was close to the $214.89 52-week high, embedding demanding execution expectations. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$185.00 Mean target$241.82 High · most bullish analyst$289.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $185.0023% AI-network deployment timing slows, supply or tariff pressure reduces profitability, or planned 1.6 Tbps products slip, causing revenue or operating margin to fall below management's Q3 outlook and prompting a material expectations reset. Base CaseCentral scenario $241.8258% Matches the consensus meanArista broadly delivers its approximately $3.3 billion Q3 revenue outlook and 48%-49% non-GAAP operating-margin range, while AI networking and enterprise expansion remain healthy but valuation upside is moderated by the high expectations reflected in the August 28 share price. Bull CaseUpside scenario $289.0019% Sustained AI-cluster investment, successful Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 introductions of the 7060XE7 family, and continued adoption across cloud, campus, routing, SD-WAN, and security support growth above current expectations while margins remain near recent levels. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |