Aris Mining Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Aris Mining Corp

ARISToronto Stock Exchange

SectorMaterials

IndustryGold

Beta (adjusted)1.70

Intrinsic Value $17.82median of 6 methods · middle span $9-$56based on filings through 31 Dec 2025

Market Price $17.40Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 2% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

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Market Cap $3.6B

Enterprise Value $3.7B

Moat Rating Narrow

Next Earnings Date28 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend30 Aug 2022

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Aris Mining is executing a highly visible, fully funded organic growth strategy to scale gold production from ~257,000 ounces in 2025 to over 500,000 ounces by 2027, with a long-term target of 1 million ounces by 2031. Led by a proven company-builder management team, the company operates high-grade, high-margin core assets in Colombia (Segovia and Marmato) while advancing world-class optionality projects (Soto Norte and Toroparu). Trading at a deep discount to mid-tier peers despite record Q1 2026 financial performance and a near-zero net debt position, Aris Mining offers a compelling re-rating opportunity combined with strong commodity leverage.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets1 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$37.00

Mean target$37.00

High · most bullish analyst$37.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

The bear case reflects potential execution delays at the Marmato Lower Mine expansion, pushing first gold into 2027, or regulatory hurdles delaying the Soto Norte environmental license. Operational cost inflation or local community unrest in Colombia could pressure AISC margins. A sharp correction in gold prices below $3,000/oz would reduce operating cash flows, though the strong balance sheet limits downside risk.

Base CaseCentral scenario

The base case assumes successful commissioning of the Marmato Lower Mine CIP plant in Q4 2026 and steady ramp-up of the Segovia mill expansion to 3,000 tpd. This drives consolidated production to the 300,000-350,000 ounce guidance range for 2026 and positions the company to achieve a 500,000 ounce run-rate by 2027. Strong cash flow generation at elevated gold prices enables the company to transition to a net-cash position in late 2026 while fully funding growth capital internally.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Proven management team led by Neil Woodyer with a track record of building multi-billion dollar producers.
Fully funded organic growth profile to double production to 500,000 oz/yr by 2027.
High-grade, low-cost core operations at Segovia generating robust cash flows.
Strong balance sheet with cash of $472M and net debt reduced to just $1.6M as of Q1 2026.
Significant long-term project optionality through Soto Norte (Colombia) and Toroparu (Guyana).

Key Investment Risks

Geopolitical and jurisdictional risks associated with operating primarily in Colombia.
Execution and construction risks related to the Marmato Lower Mine expansion and Segovia mill ramp-up.
Commodity price volatility, as profitability is highly leveraged to the market price of gold.
Potential dilution from outstanding equity compensation plans and warrant exercises.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Material delay in the commissioning of the Marmato CIP plant beyond H1 2027.
A sustained drop in the gold price below $2,500 per ounce, severely impacting project economics.
Regulatory rejection of the Soto Norte environmental license application by ANLA.
Significant operational disruptions or security incidents at the Segovia or Marmato operations.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.