Arhaus Inc Dossier
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SectorConsumer Discretionary IndustrySpecialty Retail Beta (adjusted)1.86 Intrinsic Value $8.70median of 5 methods · middle span $7-$9based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $9.47Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 8% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.3B Enterprise Value $1.1B Shares Outstanding 142.1M diluted Moat Rating Wide Next Earnings Date5 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend18 Mar 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Arhaus, Inc. operates a highly differentiated, vertically integrated direct-to-consumer model in the premium home furnishings sector. While the company's long-term growth is supported by its artisan-crafted, exclusive product assortment and showroom expansion strategy, near-term performance is constrained by macroeconomic headwinds, weak housing turnover, and tariff-related cost pressures. The company maintains a strong, debt-free balance sheet, but cautious near-term guidance and declining comparable sales warrant a neutral stance until housing market conditions stabilize and supply chain investments begin to yield margin improvements. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$7.00 Mean target$10.35 High · most bullish analyst$13.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $7.00 Persistent high interest rates and a prolonged downturn in housing turnover lead to deeper declines in comparable written and delivered sales. Elevated freight, occupancy, and product costs further compress margins, causing net income to fall below guidance. Base CaseCentral scenario $10.35 Matches the consensus meanArhaus continues to navigate a soft housing market with flat to modest revenue growth, supported by new showroom openings offsetting comparable sales declines. Margins remain under pressure from supply chain investments and tariff headwinds, but the company's debt-free balance sheet provides stability. Bull CaseUpside scenario $13.00 A rapid recovery in the housing market and easing inflation drive a surge in discretionary spending on premium home furnishings. Showroom expansion accelerates, and the newly redesigned trade program for interior designers gains significant traction, leading to double-digit revenue growth and substantial margin expansion. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |