Ares Management Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Ares Management Corp

ARESNYSE

SectorFinancials

IndustryAsset Management & Custody Banks

Beta (adjusted)1.32

Intrinsic Value $118.64median of 6 methods · middle span $67-$197based on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $116.17Price as of 30 Sep 2026

Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 2% above the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $38.5B

Shares Outstanding 313.2M diluted

Moat Rating Wide

Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend16 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Ares enters the second half of 2026 with substantial scale, record quarterly fundraising, expanding fee-related earnings and significant undeployed capital. These attributes support continued long-term growth, but the investment case also depends on converting $170 billion of dry powder into attractive investments, sustaining fund performance and navigating a transaction environment management described as slower.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets18 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$122.00

Mean target$146.50

High · most bullish analyst$168.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$122.0020%

Fundraising normalizes sharply, deployment remains slow and weaker transaction activity limits realizations. Prolonged accumulation of dry powder or deteriorating credit outcomes in direct lending would weaken earnings conversion and investor confidence.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$146.5055%

Matches the consensus mean

AUM and fee-related earnings continue growing, but below the exceptional pace implied by the latest record fundraising quarter. Deployment improves gradually while the slower transaction backdrop constrains near-term realization activity.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$168.0025%

Fundraising remains near recent record levels, the firm deploys its dry powder efficiently as transaction activity improves, and fee-related earnings continue expanding. Strong demand for strategies such as asset-based finance and continued direct-lending activity support a favorable mix of recurring fees and future performance-related income.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Approximately $671 billion of AUM and more than $36 billion of second-quarter inflows demonstrate substantial scale and strong client demand.
Record dry powder of $170 billion, an $8.5 billion Pathfinder III close and active direct-lending originations provide a sizable pipeline for future deployment and fee generation.

Key Investment Risks

Management characterized the transaction environment as slower, making the timing and economics of deployment and realizations uncertain despite a reported pickup in the investment pipeline.
A large stock of undeployed capital and significant direct-lending activity increase the importance of disciplined underwriting, investment performance and timely fee activation.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.