Ares Capital Corp Dossier - Source-backed chat

Ares Capital Corp

ARCCNASDAQ

SectorFinancials

IndustryAsset Management

Beta (adjusted)0.71

Intrinsic Value

Insufficient data for a value estimateNot enough reliable inputs to publish a fair value for this company yet.

Market Price $19.10Price as of 30 Sep 2026

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Market Cap $13.7B

Enterprise Value $29.1B

Shares Outstanding 731M diluted

Next Earnings Date27 Oct 2026

Last ex-dividend15 Sep 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Ares Capital combines a diversified $29.349 billion investment portfolio, low but rising non-accruals, substantial liquidity, and 17 years of stable or increasing regular dividends. The offset is weaker second-quarter mark-to-market performance: NAV fell to $19.35 from $19.94 at year-end 2025, Core EPS of $0.47 was just below the $0.48 quarterly dividend, and non-accruals increased. With the shares at $19.95 on August 31, 2026, the risk-reward supports a Hold pending renewed dividend coverage and stabilization in NAV and credit metrics.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets13 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$19.00

Mean target$20.62

High · most bullish analyst$23.00

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 2 Sep 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$16.0020%

Non-accruals and realized losses rise, recurring earnings remain below the dividend, and additional unrealized depreciation reduces NAV. These pressures cause investors to demand a larger discount for credit and distribution risk.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$20.6255%

Matches the consensus mean

Portfolio income broadly supports the $0.48 quarterly dividend, while modest credit normalization and unrealized valuation volatility limit NAV growth.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$23.0025%

Credit performance remains resilient, Core EPS again covers the regular dividend, and ARCC converts its investment backlog and liquidity into attractively priced assets without materially increasing leverage. Sustained low losses and stable NAV support a stronger market valuation.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

The portfolio totaled $29.349 billion across 619 companies at June 30, 2026; 59% was invested in first-lien senior secured loans and non-accruals were 1.4% at fair value.
ARCC reported approximately $6.0 billion of available liquidity after giving effect to a July note repayment, while maintaining investment-grade ratings and a 17-year record of stable or increasing regular dividends.

Key Investment Risks

Second-quarter Core EPS was $0.47 versus a $0.48 regular dividend, and NAV per share declined to $19.35 from $19.94 at December 31, 2025.
Second-quarter unrealized losses were $183 million, while non-accruals increased to 1.4% at fair value from 1.2% at year-end and the debt-to-equity ratio rose to 1.15x from 1.12x.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.