Ardent Health Inc Dossier
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SectorHealth Care IndustryMedical Care Facilities Beta (adjusted)0.80 Intrinsic Value $13.39median of 6 methods · middle span $7-$20based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $10.34Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 29% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $1.5B Enterprise Value $1.8B Shares Outstanding 142.8M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date11 Nov 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Ardent Health, Inc. (NYSE: ARDT) presents a compelling value opportunity as a leading regional healthcare provider operating in growing mid-sized urban markets. Following its July 2024 IPO, the company has successfully executed its deleveraging strategy, reducing its lease-adjusted net leverage from 3.0x to 2.6x. The recent appointment of Dave Caspers (former COO and architect of the company's IMPACT margin-improvement program) as President and CEO aligns leadership directly with the company's primary near-term catalyst. With the IMPACT program on track to deliver $55 million in savings for 2026, Ardent is well-positioned to expand margins and offset transient volume headwinds. Trading at a significant discount to larger peers like HCA and Tenet, the stock offers substantial upside as operational efficiencies materialize. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$10.00 Mean target$12.68 High · most bullish analyst$14.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $9.0015% Regulatory headwinds from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) lead to severe Medicaid eligibility restrictions and funding cuts in key states. Persistent specialized nursing shortages drive up contract labor costs, and commercial payer denials accelerate, blunting the benefits of the IMPACT program and compressing margins. Base CaseCentral scenario $12.6860% Matches the consensus meanArdent successfully delivers on its reaffirmed 2026 guidance, achieving total revenue of $6.4B–$6.7B and Adjusted EBITDA of $485M–$535M. The IMPACT program achieves its $55 million savings target, offsetting moderate volume softness from weather and lighter respiratory seasons. Leverage remains stable, and the market begins to rerate the stock closer to its historical valuation multiples. Bull CaseUpside scenario $14.0025% Accelerated execution of the IMPACT program yields savings exceeding the $55 million target, while outpatient surgery growth outpaces expectations. Commercial payer relations stabilize, and regional market density in Texas and Oklahoma drives strong pricing power, pushing Adjusted EBITDA toward the high end of the $485M–$535M guidance range. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
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All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |