Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc Dossier - Source-backed chat

Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc

ARCTNASDAQ

SectorHealth Care

IndustryBiotechnology

Beta (adjusted)1.85

Intrinsic Value $10.99median of 2 methodsbased on filings through 30 Jun 2026

Market Price $13.69Price as of 30 Sep 2026

OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 20% below the market price

−50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50%

Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence

Market Cap $389.1M

Enterprise Value $212.6M

Shares Outstanding 28.7M diluted

Next Earnings Date9 Nov 2026

All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference.

Thesis

Street consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers

AI-assisted

Thesis Summary

Arcturus Therapeutics is transitioning from an infectious disease vaccine collaborator to a focused, clinical-stage rare disease therapeutics developer. While near-term revenues are declining sharply due to a pivot away from vaccine collaborations, the company's proprietary LUNAR lipid nanoparticle delivery system and STARR self-amplifying mRNA platform underpin a high-value pipeline. Lead candidates ARCT-032 (cystic fibrosis) and ARCT-810 (OTC deficiency) are entering critical clinical execution phases. Backed by a robust cash runway extending into mid-2028, Arcturus is well-positioned to reach key clinical and regulatory milestones without immediate dilution risk.

This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today.

Street view · analyst 12-month targets10 analysts · as of 18 Aug 2026

Low · most bearish analyst$8.00

Mean target$20.60

High · most bullish analyst$40.00

Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions.

Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 20 Jun 2026

Scenarios · 12-month scenario targetsAnchored at research date

Bear CaseDownside scenario

$8.0020%

ARCT-032 encounters safety or tolerability issues during the longer 12-week Phase 2 study, or fails to show meaningful lung function improvements. The FDA demands additional preclinical or early-phase clinical trials for ARCT-810 during the EOP2 meeting, delaying the pivotal trial. Commercial demand for KOSTAIVE remains negligible, and the partnership with CSL Seqirus deteriorates further following CSL's $430 million write-down, forcing Arcturus to seek dilutive financing.

Base CaseCentral scenario

$20.6050%

Matches the consensus mean

Arcturus steadily executes its rare disease pipeline. ARCT-032 advances through its Phase 2 open-label study with acceptable safety and early efficacy signals. The company successfully holds its EOP2 meeting with the FDA for ARCT-810 in H2 2026, establishing a clear pediatric development strategy. Cash burn remains disciplined, maintaining the runway into Q2 2028, while KOSTAIVE provides modest, steady milestone and royalty inflows.

Bull CaseUpside scenario

$40.0030%

Rapid enrollment and positive 12-week Phase 2 data for ARCT-032 show significant lung function improvements (ppFEV1 and LCI) in Class I CF patients. Concurrently, the FDA aligns on a clear, accelerated pediatric pivotal path for ARCT-810 at the H2 2026 EOP2 meeting. Meiji's commercial launch of KOSTAIVE in Japan for the 2026/2027 season generates stronger-than-expected royalty streams, validating the sa-mRNA platform and extending the cash runway beyond 2029.

Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale.

Key Investment Merits

Proprietary LUNAR delivery platform offers biodegradable, cell-selective lipid nanoparticles optimized for repeated therapeutic dosing.
Strong balance sheet with $213.4 million in cash and no debt as of Q1 2026, extending the operational runway beyond Q2 2028.
First-in-class inhaled mRNA candidate (ARCT-032) targeting the root cause of cystic fibrosis in Class I mutation patients who lack other modulator options.

Key Investment Risks

Binary clinical trial risks associated with early-stage rare disease programs (ARCT-032 and ARCT-810).
Sharp contraction in near-term collaboration revenues as the company pivots away from infectious disease vaccine development.
Commercial uncertainty and partner write-downs, highlighted by CSL Limited's $430 million write-down related to the vaccine collaboration.

Thesis Invalidation Triggers

Failure of ARCT-032 to meet safety or efficacy endpoints in the Phase 2 12-week cystic fibrosis study.
Regulatory roadblocks or clinical holds imposed by the FDA during or after the H2 2026 EOP2 meeting for ARCT-810.
Severe cash burn acceleration that shortens the cash runway to less than 12 months before key data readouts.

All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Explore this dossier

ValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework.