Arcosa Inc Dossier
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SectorIndustrials IndustryEngineering & Construction Beta (adjusted)1.05 Intrinsic Value $88.18median of 6 methods · middle span $61-$175based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $146.15Price as of 30 Sep 2026 OvervaluedIntrinsic value is 40% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $7.2B Enterprise Value $8.2B Shares Outstanding 49.3M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date29 Oct 2026 Last ex-dividend15 Jul 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Arcosa, Inc. is successfully executing a strategic portfolio transformation, shifting away from cyclical, lower-margin businesses toward high-return, aggregates-led construction materials and engineered structures. The recent $450 million divestiture of its inland barge business completed on April 1, 2026, marks a pivotal milestone, leaving the company focused on two growth segments well-aligned with secular tailwinds. These tailwinds include federal infrastructure funding (IIJA), grid modernization, and the expansion of data centers. Despite near-term volume headwinds in wind towers, Arcosa's pricing power in aggregates and record backlog in utility structures position it for robust long-term compounding. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$140.00 Mean target$146.67 High · most bullish analyst$150.00 Street targets sit above today's price; our intrinsic value sits below it. Different horizons, different questions. Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $140.0015% Prolonged high interest rates delay public and private construction projects, dampening aggregates demand. Delays in federal infrastructure funding allocation and persistent supply chain bottlenecks in utility grid connections limit backlog conversion, while the wind tower recovery stalls into late 2027. Base CaseCentral scenario $146.6760% Matches the consensus meanArcosa continues to leverage its strong local market positions and pricing power in aggregates to offset flat volumes. Utility structures backlog is steadily recognized, compensating for the expected temporary decline in wind tower volumes in 2026 before a projected recovery in 2027. Net leverage remains comfortable at ~1.9x, preserving financial flexibility. Bull CaseUpside scenario $150.0025% Accelerated infrastructure spending and rapid data center expansion drive unprecedented demand for utility structures and aggregates. The integration of Stavola yields higher-than-expected synergies, and the wind tower market recovers ahead of schedule in late 2026, leading to significant margin expansion and multiple re-rating. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |