Archrock Inc Dossier
|
SectorEnergy IndustryOil & Gas Equipment & Services Beta (adjusted)0.92 Intrinsic Value $41.70median of 6 methods · middle span $27-$58based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $30.29Price as of 30 Sep 2026 UndervaluedIntrinsic value is 38% above the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $5.3B Enterprise Value $7.7B Shares Outstanding 174.6M diluted Moat Rating Narrow Next Earnings Date4 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend4 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary Archrock, Inc. (AROC) is a premier energy infrastructure company specializing in midstream natural gas contract compression services. The company is uniquely positioned to benefit from secular tailwinds, including rising global LNG export demand, domestic natural gas production growth, and emerging power demand from AI data centers. With high fleet utilization, strong pricing power, and a highly contracted backlog, Archrock offers a compelling combination of visible cash flows, disciplined capital allocation, and steady dividend growth. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$40.00 Mean target$42.50 High · most bullish analyst$46.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $35.0015% A prolonged downturn in crude oil and natural gas prices leads to a slowdown in Permian Basin drilling activity, reducing demand for gas lift and associated gas applications. Supply chain bottlenecks and extended lead times for engine components stall organic growth initiatives. Increased competition from modular power developers for engine drives limits equipment availability, squeezing margins and lowering fleet utilization below 92%. Base CaseCentral scenario $42.5060% Matches the consensus meanArchrock maintains stable operations with fleet utilization hovering around 95-96%. Contract operations benefit from multi-year contract structures and rate escalators, offsetting moderate SG&A inflation. The company executes its 2026 growth capex plan of $250M-$275M within cash flow, keeping leverage comfortably below its 3.0x-3.5x target. Dividend growth continues at a steady double-digit annual pace. Bull CaseUpside scenario $46.0025% Accelerated domestic natural gas production and rapid expansion of LNG export terminals drive unprecedented demand for large-horsepower compression. Archrock successfully pushes further rate increases across its fleet, maintaining utilization above 96%. The integration of recent acquisitions (TOPS and Natural Gas Compression Systems) yields higher-than-expected synergies, driving 2026 EBITDA to the top end of guidance and prompting further dividend increases. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
Thesis Invalidation Triggers
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |