Archer-Daniels-Midland Co Dossier
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SectorConsumer Staples IndustryAgricultural Products & Services Beta (adjusted)0.74 Intrinsic Value $73.70median of 6 methods · middle span $61-$130based on filings through 30 Jun 2026 Market Price $79.38Price as of 30 Sep 2026 Near fair valueIntrinsic value is 7% below the market price −50% · IV below pricenear fair value ±15%IV above price · +50% Data confidence Sign in to view data confidence Market Cap $38.3B Enterprise Value $44.8B Shares Outstanding 485M diluted Moat Rating None Next Earnings Date3 Nov 2026 Last ex-dividend19 Aug 2026 All prices and values are periodic snapshots, not live quotes. Source dates are shown for reference. ThesisStreet consensus, scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggers Thesis Summary ADM entered the second half of 2026 with materially improved operating momentum: second-quarter adjusted EPS was $1.84, total segment operating profit increased 75% year over year, all three reportable segments grew, and management raised FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.15-$5.60. The recovery is nevertheless unusually dependent on constructive biofuel economics, elevated energy prices and trade conditions, while the recent settlement and historical restatement concerning intersegment reporting warrant a continuing governance discount. This section is the 12-month view: analyst targets and the probability-weighted scenarios built from them. The intrinsic value at the top of this page answers a different question: what the business is worth today. Street view · analyst 12-month targets Low · most bearish analyst$60.00 Mean target$78.70 High · most bullish analyst$95.00 Our research · scenarios, merits, risks, and invalidation triggersResearch as of 18 Sep 2026 Scenarios · 12-month scenario targets Bear CaseDownside scenario $60.0020% Biofuel margins normalize faster than expected, energy or trade conditions become less supportive, and Nutrition growth slows, causing ADM to lower the $5.15 guidance floor or reverse recent ROIC improvement. Renewed financial-control or disclosure concerns would further weaken confidence. Base CaseCentral scenario $78.7057% Matches the consensus meanADM delivers within its raised FY2026 adjusted EPS range as stronger crushing, ethanol and Nutrition results offset normal commodity, mark-to-market and trade volatility. The January 2026 resolution of the SEC and DOJ investigations removes a major open proceeding, but the historical reporting failures continue to justify caution. Bull CaseUpside scenario $95.0023% The constructive biofuels environment persists, strong execution sustains crushing and ethanol margins, and Nutrition continues growing through Flavors, Decatur East recovery and Animal Nutrition improvements. In this outcome, ADM reaches or exceeds the upper end of its $5.15-$5.60 FY2026 adjusted EPS range while adjusted ROIC continues improving. Scenarios are anchored to street consensus at the research date, with our probabilities and rationale. Key Investment Merits
Key Investment Risks
All scenarios are estimates and subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Quality Pillars MembersThis section is available to registered members. Create a free account or sign in to unlock the full breakdown. Explore this dossierValuationIntrinsic value, the six-method breakdown, peer medians, and your assumptions sandbox.Financial SnapshotRevenue, profitability, returns, balance sheet, dividends, and the filing-level detail.Qualitative AnalysisBusiness overview, strategic initiatives, and mergers, acquisitions & partnerships.Outlook & Key DatesForward estimates, reporting calendar, and the monitoring framework. |